Exporting to the US in 2025: Huge Potential, Significant Challenges

28 January, 2025

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According to statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the total two-way trade turnover between Vietnam and the United States in 2024 reached over $132 billion. Vietnam’s exports to the US reached nearly $119 billion, an increase of 23.3% compared to the same period in 2023; while imports from the US reached $13 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year.

Vietnam became the 8th largest trading partner and the 4th largest export market of the US in the ASEAN region. Conversely, the US is Vietnam’s second-largest trading partner and its largest export market. Vietnam’s main export items to the US include footwear, wooden furniture, machinery, and optical equipment…

KEY INDUSTRIES MAINTAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM

According to assessments by several experts, in 2025, Vietnam’s key export industries will have many opportunities to export to the US market, including textiles, wooden handicrafts, electrical machinery, and agricultural products… These industries are expected to continue their positive growth momentum. Specifically, for the textile industry, exports to the US account for 40% of the industry’s total exports. In 2025, the textile industry is expected to achieve $25 billion in exports to the US market, driven by the growing demand for high-quality and environmentally-friendly products.

Similarly, wooden handicraft products, with their strong growth potential, are predicted to reach approximately $10 billion in 2025, an increase of over 20% compared to 2024. The trend of consuming sustainable and recycled furniture in the US continues to be the main driver for this industry. Additionally, high-tech products such as electronic components and telecommunications equipment also contribute significantly to the total export turnover, with a projected value increase of 15-18% due to the expansion of production by corporations such as Samsung, Intel, and LG.

The agricultural and aquatic products sector, including key items such as shrimp, pangasius, and cashew nuts, is also expected to achieve a turnover of over $7 billion. Maintaining stable product quality and meeting the stringent food safety standards of the US are crucial factors for the continued growth of this sector. Moreover, products such as rubber and iron and steel are also predicted to maintain stable growth rates, playing an important role in the US industrial production supply chain.

Analyses indicate that Vietnam will continue to benefit from the global supply chain shift, where Vietnam is considered an attractive destination due to its competitive labor costs, favorable investment environment, and improving production capabilities. Furthermore, US consumers are shifting towards using sustainable products, presenting a significant opportunity for Vietnamese businesses to innovate their production processes and enhance the value of their supply chains.

Despite the significant potential for exports to the US in 2025, according to Mr. Do Ngoc Hung, Director of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, the administration of President Donald Trump and the new cabinet are predicted to have a substantial impact, even reversing political, economic, and financial situations worldwide and in the region.

US EFFORTS TO CURB TRADE DEFICIT

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce in early December 2024, the total trade turnover of goods of the US in the first ten months of 2024 reached $4,432 billion, an increase of 2.7% compared to the same period in 2023. Imports were approximately $2,700 billion, and exports were $1,724 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of nearly $1,000 billion.

Due to this significant trade deficit, President Donald Trump has received strong agreement and support from the Republican Party in addressing issues such as inflation, trade deficits, and protecting American workers from unfair trade practices…

“Mr. Peter Navarro, appointed as the Senior Advisor for Economics and Manufacturing of the US, has called on Congress to pass the US Reciprocal Trade Act (USRTA), which would allow the US to raise tariffs and impose countervailing duties on countries with higher tariff rates than those currently applied by the US and remove non-tariff barriers. Otherwise, the US will increase tariffs proportionally to match the tariffs that these countries have imposed on the US,” said Mr. Hung.

According to calculations, if this happens, countries like India and China will fall into Group 1 (the group of countries that will be considered for tariff imposition), the EU will be in Group 2, and Thailand, Taiwan, and Vietnam will be in Group 3. Among the measures related to trade and industry, the prominent ones include trade balance and deficit reduction.

Statistics from the US International Trade Commission show that the total trade turnover between Vietnam and the US in the first ten months of 2024 reached $112 billion, with Vietnam’s trade surplus reaching $102 billion, an increase of 26% year-on-year and accounting for 29.5% of Vietnam’s total exports.

“Achieving trade balance and mutual benefit is becoming increasingly urgent. Vietnam needs to continue its efforts in fulfilling market opening commitments, accelerating the resolution of recommendations from the US business community, and demonstrating its commitment to maintaining trade and investment relations between the two countries,” emphasized Mr. Hung. At the same time, he stated that these factors could lead to the US Department of Commerce initiating investigations and applying trade remedies and tax evasion measures on Vietnamese goods.

Experts believe that with a solid foundation of comprehensive strategic partnership and opportunities from global trends, Vietnam’s exports to the US in 2025 will not only bring enormous economic benefits but also strengthen Vietnam’s role in the global supply chain. If Vietnam can seize these opportunities and effectively address the challenges, it can achieve significant progress and open a new chapter in its trade cooperation with the US.

BUSINESSES NEED TO PROACTIVELY PLAN RESPONSES

Mr. Kevin Morgan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the US-Vietnam Business Council, opined that since Vietnam has a trade surplus of over $100 billion with the US, it will definitely be affected by the new US trade policies. Therefore, Vietnamese businesses should prepare and plan for various scenarios to continue operating in this market.

Trade remedy measures from the US, the requirement to comply with ESG standards, and intensifying competition from rivals such as China, Bangladesh, and India also necessitate substantial investments in technology and innovation for businesses to maintain their competitive edge.

Therefore, Mr. Hung recommended that businesses pay close attention to the issue of product origin and input materials for production. They can consider importing raw materials and auxiliary materials from the US to balance the trade balance. Additionally, it is crucial to continue improving technology, enhancing product quality, and reducing production costs to maintain a competitive advantage in the future.

Dr. Miguel A. Ferrer, CEO of VloT Technology Joint Stock Company, predicted that Vietnam’s exports to the US in 2025 would maintain positive growth momentum due to its prominent position in the global supply chain, advantages in labor costs, modern infrastructure, and strong FDI inflows from corporations like Samsung, Apple, and Intel…

However, to seize these opportunities, Vietnam needs to diversify its markets, increase product value through technological innovation and brand building, and invest heavily in logistics and digitalization. With thorough preparation, Vietnam can not only sustain its export growth but also solidify its position in the US and international markets…

The full content of this article was published in the Vietnam Economic Magazine, Issue 3-20245, released on January 20, 2025. Please visit the following link to read the complete article: https://postenp.phaha.vn/chi-tiet-toa-soan/tap-chi-kinh-te-viet-nam