Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy at VPBank Securities (VPBS), shared notable insights on the Vietnam and the Indices show on June 9, 2025.
Vietnam-US trade negotiations have shown significant progress.
According to VPBS experts, the ongoing negotiations are progressing well, but there are some considerations. In 2024, Vietnam was among the top four countries/regions with the largest trade deficit with the US, recording a deficit of 122 billion USD. Excluding the Eurozone, Vietnam ranks third among countries with the largest trade deficit with the US.
Recently, US lawmakers have been debating whether Vietnam is transshipping goods from China to the US. While this does not reflect the true nature of Vietnam’s trade, being among the top three countries with the largest trade deficit with the US has made Vietnam a hotspot, making trade negotiations challenging.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son sharing insights on the Vietnam and the Indices show on June 9, 2025 – Screenshot
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In recent rounds of negotiations, Vietnam and the US have committed to accelerating negotiations, approaching trade constructively, and aiming for a sustainable trade balance (Vietnam imports aircraft, fuel, LNG, agricultural products, and energy, while the US wants Vietnam to reduce imports of raw materials from China). They have also proposed a specific roadmap.
As early as March-April 2025, Vietnam signed a cooperation agreement worth 90 billion USD to reduce the trade deficit. Starting in 2025, about 50 billion USD will gradually reduce the deficit through the purchase of aircraft, aviation services, oil and gas, petrochemicals, etc. Recently, Vietnam committed to importing an additional 3 billion USD worth of US agricultural products, including grains, animal feed, meat, agricultural products, and timber. Vietnam has signed 20 memoranda of understanding with various US states, such as Iowa (800 million USD), Ohio (600 million USD), Maryland (300 million USD), and Washington DC (1.1 billion USD)…
With these commitments, which are substantial and have clear figures, Mr. Son believes that the tax rates Vietnam expects to achieve are quite positive. After the negotiations, if Vietnam’s tariffs are lower than China’s, Vietnamese goods will continue to maintain their advantage, and FDI will continue to flow into the country.
What to do when the market is sensitive near the negotiation conclusion date?
Regarding the current stock market situation, VPBS experts assess that it is facing challenges as it encounters a strong resistance zone in the last three years and is also very sensitive as the final round of tariff negotiations draws near.
Groups that have contributed significantly to the market’s recovery, such as Vingroup (VIC, VHM, VRE, VPL), and banks, are showing signs of stagnation and adjustment. Another issue is the recent net selling by foreign investors.
When asked whether investors should take profits after the market’s strong performance, Mr. Son replied that the decision depends on individual account status and investment orientations.
In reality, there have been many super-performing stocks in 2025, with gains of 50-70%. Therefore, if investors hold stocks in an “uptrend,” have positive information, and their charts are still trending upward, they should hold these stocks for the whole year and avoid frequent trading. This strategy helps mitigate the impact of market noise.
However, for short-term investors with a time horizon of two weeks to one month, the 1,350-point region holds many uncertainties. Therefore, if their short-term portfolios are profitable, investors should consider taking profits at the 1,340-1,350-point level. If the market corrects to the 1,280-1,300-point range, it will be a good time to buy back and hold for the year-end rallies.
Looking at the monthly chart of the VN-Index, the market is in a very tight sideways phase, waiting for a breakout. This situation has occurred for the third time, similar to the periods of 2004-2005 and 2014-2015.
Currently, the market is going through a pivotal phase. On the positive side, during the May rebound, the VN-Index broke through the upper bound of its trading range and is now in the 1,300-1,350-point zone. The resistance of the past two years has been broken. Expected corrections in June and July will be opportunities to buy, and there are not many concerns.
Looking at the weekly chart, the VN-Index faces resistance at 1,350-1,380 points and is showing signs of correction. Therefore, if profits have been made, investors can consider taking profits and then waiting for a market correction to switch to potential stocks for the next wave, with more reasonable buying points.
In the next phase, Mr. Son still favors leading stocks. If a correction occurs at the end of June or early July due to noisy information, there are still expectations for economic recovery and growth stories, focusing on financial and banking stocks, undervalued real estate, and consumer retail.
– 11:30 10/06/2025
Stock Trading Leadership: Major Deals at HHS, VAB, and DVC
The trading statistics for the week of May 2-6, 2025, revealed a significant surge in transactions with large volumes. Notably, this was evident in the trading activities of stocks HHS, VAB, DVC, and CTF, which witnessed substantial movements.
Stock Market Insights: A Shift in Perspective
The market witnessed a significant surge in sell-off pressure today, resulting in a notable decline in liquidity. This phenomenon can be attributed to the reduction in buying momentum, causing investors to step aside and allow sellers to take the reins in search of liquidity.
Market Pulse, June 9: VIC, VHM Wipe Out Over 10 Points from VN-Index
The market closed with notable losses, as the VN-Index fell by 1.45% to 1,310.57, shedding 19.32 points. Likewise, the HNX-Index declined by 0.93%, or 2.12 points, settling at 226.49. The session was dominated by sellers, with 507 declining tickers against 228 advancing ones. Within the VN30 basket, 19 stocks retreated, 7 advanced, and 4 remained unchanged, echoing the broader market’s bearish sentiment.
The Cautious Cash Flow: Liquidity at a 21-Day Low, Foreigners Sell Over VND 500 Billion
The market witnessed a significant downturn during Monday’s morning session, with a sea of red and a sudden dip in liquidity. The VN-Index took a severe hit, retreating to just above the 1320-point mark, largely due to the substantial decline of two heavyweight stocks, VIC and VHM.
Market Beat: A Pulse Check on Investor Sentiment
The market witnessed a lackluster performance in the morning session, with no significant recovery efforts. The subdued participation of cash flow, coupled with persistent pressure from the pillar group, painted a gloomy picture. VN-Index hovered at 1,323.17 points, reflecting a 0.51% decline, while HNX-Index mirrored this sentiment with a 0.52% drop, settling at 227.42. The market breadth further emphasized the bearish trend, with 386 declining stocks outweighing the 222 advancing ones.
