Home Investments The Resilient Vietnamese Economy: A Stable Foundation for a Promising Future

Investments

The Resilient Vietnamese Economy: A Stable Foundation for a Promising Future

5 August, 2025

Port of Tan Vu, Haiphong: Unloading export goods. (Photo: Tuan Anh/VNA)

The first half of 2025 concluded with a notable highlight: Vietnam’s economy grew by 7.52%, the highest in over a decade. This development not only exceeded the forecasts of many international organizations but also reinforced confidence in the resilience and potential of Vietnam’s economy amid a volatile global environment.

Subsequently, several foreign institutions upwardly adjusted their projections for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecast a 7% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), suggesting that Vietnam could lead the region in terms of growth rate this year.

UOB Bank (Singapore) also revised its prediction from 6% to 6.9%, emphasizing the evident recovery in manufacturing and trade activities. While maintaining a more cautious stance, institutions such as the World Bank (WB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Standard Chartered likewise acknowledged Vietnam’s stable macroeconomic foundation and adaptive capacity in a dynamic global economic landscape.

In its July 2025 report, the ADB attributed the country’s growth to the continued strength of trade and investment, along with sustained high levels of public investment disbursement in the first half of the year, which provided an additional boost to the economy.

Another bright spot highlighted by international organizations was the growth of exports and the stability of the trade balance. In the first six months of the year, Vietnam’s export turnover reached 219 billion USD, a more than 14% increase, contributing to maintaining a trade surplus, consolidating resources for exchange rates, and bolstering foreign reserves.

Furthermore, Vietnam’s investment environment continues to be positively appraised by the foreign business community. As global corporations increasingly adopt supply chain diversification strategies, Vietnam is emerging as an attractive destination due to its geopolitical advantages, flexible production capabilities, and improvements in the business environment.

The mid-year 2025 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (AmCham) revealed that 61% of businesses maintained or increased hiring, while 52% reported higher revenue compared to the same period last year. Notably, many enterprises in manufacturing, logistics, and information technology witnessed a robust recovery thanks to the shift of orders into the Vietnamese market.

Export manufacturing activities. (Photo: Tran Viet/VNA)

Similarly, the Business Climate Index (BCI) survey for the second quarter of 2025, conducted by the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham), reflected stable optimism among European businesses in the country. Nearly three-quarters of the surveyed companies stated their willingness to recommend Vietnam as a strategic investment destination, especially given the ongoing global trade tensions.

However, alongside the positive outlook, some indicators suggest that Vietnam’s economy warrants cautious monitoring. The S&P Global-surveyed Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continued to decline for the third consecutive month, settling at 48.9 points in June 2025. This threshold indicates a slight weakening in the manufacturing sector’s business conditions. UOB experts opined that the low PMI reflects the challenges faced by the industry, particularly concerning new order declines.

According to S&P Global, Vietnam’s export orders in June 2025 decreased at the fastest pace since September 2021, equivalent to the drop observed in May 2023. Some businesses mentioned that factors related to international trade policies—especially plans to adjust import taxes from the US—are impacting their order forecasts and investment plans for the second half of the year. Although there have been no immediate effects, prolonged policy risks could exert pressure on key export sectors.

In this context, international organizations underscored the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability and institutional reforms to safeguard the recovery. Controlling inflation at a reasonable level—currently below 4% for 11 consecutive months—remains crucial for Vietnam to retain its monetary policy space. Simultaneously, accelerating public investment disbursement, streamlining administrative procedures, and enhancing transparency in the business environment are expected to foster long-term growth.

Indeed, there has been a noticeable performance divergence across sectors. Technology manufacturing, logistics, and export-oriented services continue to spearhead growth, while some professional services, education, and real estate sectors reported results below expectations. This differentiation partly reflects the economic restructuring process, wherein sectors capable of innovation and adaptation to global trends are assuming leadership roles.

Overall, Vietnam is in a relatively favorable position compared to other emerging economies in the region. Achieving the highest growth rate among ASEAN+3 countries in 2025 is well within reach, provided that the entire system—from the government to enterprises—remains focused on long-term efficiency and sustainable development./.

Dieu Linh

– 17:15 30/07/2025