“Will Hanoi Condo Prices Drop in 2026?”

Luxury Apartments: A Rare Find at Affordable Prices

Research data from the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS) reveals a continuous decline in the supply of apartments in Hanoi from 2018-2023. The number dropped from over 20,000 units in 2018 to just 10,000 new units in 2023. Not only has the quantity decreased, but the structure of apartment supply in the capital has also become imbalanced. The proportion of new affordable apartments (<$25 million/sq.m) has continuously shrunk, from 35% in 2019 to none in 2023.

In early 2024, Hanoi’s apartment supply showed signs of recovery and maintained this upward trend. By the end of 2024, Hanoi recorded approximately 30,000 new apartments, the highest in the five-year period. This trend continued into the first half of 2025, with over 10,000 new apartments entering the market.

While supply has increased, there is a growing mismatch between supply and demand. Specifically, in 2024, middle-income apartments ($25 – $50 million/sq.m) also became scarce, with more than 95% of new apartments priced at $50 million/sq.m or higher. From the third quarter of 2024 until now, Hanoi’s real estate market has not recorded any new apartment projects priced below $60 million/sq.m. In the first half of 2025, 60% of new apartment supply was priced above $80 million/sq.m. Some apartment projects in the provinces surrounding Hanoi are also priced at $55 million/sq.m.

Although there will be a return of affordable apartments in Hanoi from upcoming social housing projects, the “mismatch” situation is unlikely to improve soon, as the number of apartments priced over $100 million/sq.m is increasing rapidly.

According to the VARS report, in the second quarter of 2025, Hanoi led the country in the growth rate of apartment selling prices, reaching an average of $75.5 million/sq.m, up 7.7% from the previous quarter and a significant increase of 87.7% from the same period last year.

The Apartment Market: An Unusual Scenario

Savills Vietnam’s Q2 2025 report on the Hanoi real estate market recorded approximately 8,000 new apartments launched during the quarter. In the first six months, total new supply reached about 14,900 units, up 121% from the same period in 2024.

Despite the significant increase in supply, the average primary selling price remained high at $91 million/sq.m, a 40% year-on-year increase. Notably, apartments priced above $4 billion continued to account for the largest proportion (67%), while primary supply below $2 billion was almost non-existent.

“The primary selling price continues to rise despite ample supply because the projects launched in the second quarter were mainly located in prime locations and positioned in the luxury segment,” said Ms. Do Thu Hang, Senior Director of Consulting and Research, Savills Hanoi. “At the same time, the scarcity of central land and increasing development costs have led many investors to focus on optimizing commercial value.”

According to Ms. Hang, the market currently records stable purchasing power and improved liquidity compared to the same period last year, indicating no pressure to lower prices. In addition, the expectation of future value appreciation due to improved infrastructure and urbanization has made investors willing to accept current prices.

The concentration of new supply in the Grade B segment, along with stable secondary market prices and no signs of deep discounts, has contributed to sustaining price levels across the market.

Regarding buyer structure, Ms. Hang shared that in the second quarter, owner-occupiers were present but accounted for a smaller proportion than investors.

“The current apartment price level is high, narrowing down the demand for owner-occupiers. The new projects are still far from the city center or densely populated areas, so buyers mainly expect future price increases,” Ms. Hang analyzed. “A portion of them also intends to occupy the apartments upon completion, with the flexibility to switch usage purposes depending on market fluctuations. This ‘front-running’ mentality has made investors the dominant force in total transactions.”

Savills also noted that investors maintain a positive mindset, especially in areas with good locations and existing or planned infrastructure. These factors continue to support price levels in projects with advantages and enhance investment value over time.

According to Savills, from 2026 onwards, when the pilot projects complete their legal procedures, new supply is expected to increase significantly.

In the 2026-2027 period, the Hanoi market is expected to receive about 46,600 apartments from 43 projects, most of which are located outside the city center. This development may slightly lower the overall price level.

However, Ms. Hang noted that projects in areas with limited land supply, high demand, and developed by reputable investors are likely to maintain or even increase their prices.