In its newly released August strategic report, Nhất Việt Securities (VFS) stated that the VN-Index continued to surge and surpassed the 1,500-point mark, reaching the upper boundary of the medium-term uptrend thanks to persistent foreign and individual investor demand.
“Although the VN-Index couldn’t hold on to its monthly high of 1,566 points, the changing dynamics of the medium-term upward momentum keep positive scenarios open for the market,” the report stated.
As the market is still conquering the old peak after adjustment, this remains an important resistance area to watch.
Earlier, the average trading value per session in July reached VND32,800 billion, up a strong 75% from the previous month, reflecting the strong participation of new money and high expectations from investors. In addition, July also recorded one down session with a record liquidity of over VND70,000 billion – the highest ever.
VFS assessed that the market’s high liquidity above VND40,000 billion in the last sessions of July opened up the possibility of establishing a new liquidity base for the market.
On the other hand, in terms of sectors, finance and real estate are groups that are quite favored by both investment and speculative investment flows. This is especially true when the market rises strongly and continuously breaks hard support levels. In contrast, stocks in the industrial real estate, textiles, seafood, and chemicals sectors, although slightly increased, were mostly sideways. Insurance and construction stocks, although not rising with the market, were corrected when the market faced selling pressure.
Entering August, many positive information is expected to continue to support the market, such as money still in the market and continuously rotating through many sectors, not really escaping although there are strong adjustment/distribution sessions.
According to VFS, the buying force from institutional investors is still maintained, helping the market balance in the correction phases. In addition, macro information about tariffs between the US and Vietnam can be announced again, which will be a lever to help the market recover and continue to rise.
Nhất Việt Securities’ analytics team outlined two scenarios for the VN-Index in August:
Scenario 1: Buying force improves positively, VN-Index recovers and continues to rise towards higher price ranges. Investors can participate in disbursement in stocks that show signs of continuing the uptrend or breaking out of the accumulation base with large volume.
Scenario 2: Selling pressure at high prices is intensified, VN-Index returns to fluctuate within the 1,450 – 1,550-point range. Investors can trade within the range (buy at the lower boundary and wait to sell at the upper boundary) for short-term surfing.
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