The Great Property Inventory Surge: Navigating the Market’s Imbalance

Surging Inventory: A Snapshot of Vietnam’s Real Estate Market

As per the Q2/2025 financial reports, Novaland Group’s (stock code: NVL) inventory as of June 30 stood at VND 150,113 billion, a nearly 3% increase from the beginning of the period. Approximately 95% of this comprises land funds and projects under construction, with the remainder consisting of completed real estate and goods, as well as finished properties awaiting handover to customers.

Vinhomes JSC (stock code: VHM) boasts an inventory surpassing VND 80,210 billion, marking a nearly 46% surge since the year’s outset. The majority of this is tied up in real estate projects under development, such as Vinhomes Ocean Park, Grand Park, and Smart City.

Similarly, Khang Điền House Trading and Investment JSC (stock code: KDH) holds an inventory of over VND 23,000 billion in total assets, reflecting an increase of nearly VND 1,000 billion compared to the same period last year. Their focus lies in projects like Khang Phúc – Tân Tạo Residential Area (Mega Township) with VND 8,146 billion, Clarita – Bình Trưng Đông with VND 4,639 billion, and The Emeria – Bình Trưng Đông with VND 3,725 billion. Notably, the majority of the land use rights and assets in these projects have been mortgaged for loans.

Nam Long Investment Corporation (stock code: NLG), as of June 30, held total assets worth VND 28,214 billion. The lion’s share of Nam Long’s assets, VND 17,902 billion, is comprised of inventory (63% of total assets). This includes VND 8,677 billion at the Izumi project (in Đồng Nai province), VND 6,855 billion at the Waterpoint project (in Tây Ninh province), VND 1,292 billion at a project in Cần Thơ, and VND 351 billion at the Ehome Hải Phòng project.

Đất Xanh Group (stock code: DXG) maintains its highest-value asset category as inventory, totaling more than VND 14,100 billion (a 5% increase from the beginning of the year). This primarily consists of unfinished real estate valued at over VND 9,800 billion.

Phát Đạt Real Estate Development Corporation (stock code: PDR) witnessed a slight increase in total assets as of June 30 compared to the end of 2024. Inventory constituted the largest proportion, amounting to VND 14,100 billion, derived from key projects such as The EverRich 2 (VND 3,598 billion), Thuận An 1 – 2 (VND 3,124 billion), Tropicana Bến Thành Long Hải (VND 1,994 billion), and the Bắc Hà Thanh Urban Area Renovation and Residential Area Development project (VND 1,556 billion).

DIC Corporation (stock code: DIG), a leading construction and development company, currently holds inventory as its most significant asset category, valued at VND 9,181 billion (a nearly 13% increase from the beginning of the year). This includes VND 9,019 billion in construction work-in-progress across various projects, such as the Đại Phước Eco-Tourism Urban Area (VND 2,142 billion), the 51B Vũng Tàu Road Urban Area (VND 259 billion), the A2-Vũng Tàu Center Point apartment project (VND 1,288 billion), and the Nam Vĩnh Yên new urban area (VND 2,089 billion).

Taseco Land, a real estate investment company (stock code: TAL), recorded total assets of VND 12,414 billion, a 33% increase compared to the beginning of the year. This substantial growth is attributed to a 79% rise in inventory, which now stands at VND 7,306 billion.

According to the Ministry of Construction, the total number of unsold real estate properties currently stands at over 25,294, including 11,700 land plots, 10,290 separate houses, and 3,287 apartments. Notably, apartment inventory witnessed the most significant increase, surging by over 40% in just three months.

In Q2/2025, the country witnessed 58 newly licensed projects, 1,517 projects under construction, and 157 projects eligible for business operations. Specifically, in Hanoi, more than 10,760 new units were launched in the first six months. However, 100% of these new launches belonged to the luxury and premium segments, with asking prices ranging from VND 60 to 300 million per square meter. This highlights a severe mismatch in supply and demand.

Turning to Ho Chi Minh City, Savills Vietnam’s report for Q2 revealed approximately 5,400 primary apartments launched, but only 1,600 were new, with the remaining 70% being inventory from previous launches.

For the first six months, the total primary supply reached 6,800 units, with inventory accounting for 75%, or 5,100 units. In terms of transactions, around 2,400 apartments were successfully sold in Q2, equivalent to a 45% absorption rate, of which 67% came from new supply.

Skyrocketing Prices: The Main Culprit?

Ms. Giang Huynh, Director of Research at S22M Savills Ho Chi Minh City, attributes the difficulty in selling apartment inventory to exorbitant prices and locations far from city centers. Many projects fail to align with the practical needs of homebuyers or investors, while the market severely lacks affordable options.

Meanwhile, the luxury and premium segments dominate the market. The Institute of Building Economics and Construction (a division of the Ministry of Construction) reported that newly launched residential projects in the first half of the year primarily belonged to the mid-range and high-end segments. Most projects offered prices above VND 80 million per square meter, with an increasing number of projects in the peri-urban area surpassing the VND 100 million per square meter mark.

According to the Institute, there is a noticeable imbalance in the current housing structure, with a limited number of affordable homes. In contrast, developers primarily focus on high-end real estate projects. Skyrocketing apartment prices have led to a decrease in the number of affordable options in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. In these cities, apartments priced below VND 2 billion are scarce and typically belong to older condominium projects located far from city centers.

Batdongsan.com.vn’s survey revealed that nearly 80% of buyers prioritize new project launches. Consequently, existing inventory, primarily comprising previously launched products, becomes less appealing.

The Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) assessed that the new project supply mainly caters to high-income individuals and investors, potentially hindering the market’s sustainable development and contributing to the surge in inventory.

Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), warned of a severe imbalance in the market structure. Since 2024, all new supply has been in the high-end segment, while mid-range and affordable commercial housing has virtually disappeared, resembling an “inverted pyramid” that lacks sustainability.

Property prices have continuously risen over the years and remain at very high levels. For instance, the price of a high-end apartment in 2024 reached VND 90 million per square meter, with an average of VND 9.7 billion per unit (this is the primary price upon project approval and does not reflect the selling price). Such prices are out of reach for the majority of middle-income earners and low-income urban residents.