Novaland’s Positive Outlook Despite Challenges
Despite the challenges, BSC Research maintains a positive outlook on Novaland Group’s restructuring process. According to their recent report, Novaland’s business results for the first half of 2025 met expectations, particularly regarding their improved cash flow through legal resolution at AquaCity and NovaWorld Phan Thiet projects.
Novaland’s leadership shared that the focus for the remaining half of the year will be on construction and delivering sold products at AquaCity, while continuing their strategy of collaborating with other investors at the project level, with Novaland retaining a 51% voting ratio to optimize resources.
AquaCity project makes progress despite challenges
BSC anticipates that in 2025, Novaland will deliver 1,421 products, including 368 units in the center of Ho Chi Minh City, 601 units at Aqua City, 227 units at NovaWorld Phan Thiet, and 225 units at NovaWorld Ho Tram.
Novaland’s diverse portfolio of projects across Vietnam
Several projects are expected to unlock legal hurdles in the second half of 2025. For the Aqua City project, Novaland anticipates land use fees to be approved in Q4 2025, with sales permits for unsold products expected in Q1 2026.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the Victoria Village project awaits sales permits for high-rise products, expected in Q3 2025. The Grand Manhattan project awaits approval for land use fees and sales permits in the latter half of the year. The Park Avenue project is pending an investment policy conclusion, while Palm City awaits adjustments to the 1/500 plan and sales permits in the last two quarters, with expected sales in Q2 2026.
The Water Bay and Lakeview projects have determined their land use fee calculation timelines and are awaiting final fee determination. Sunrise Riverside is on track for completion and handover in 2025.
NovaWorld Phan Thiet is pending a decision on the commercial land unit price, with financial obligations expected to be fulfilled in Q4 2025.
BSC anticipates that the Lakeview project will receive land price approval, enabling Novaland to reverse provisions of VND 4,358 billion at the project in the second half of 2025.
BSC believes that the second half of 2025 will be a supportive phase for Novaland, with positive legal progress at various projects, improved business results from reversing provisions at Lakeview, and enhanced cash flow from asset sales and collections at AquaCity.
On August 7, 2025, Novaland’s shareholders approved three proposals for equity issuance to convert debt and execute convertible loans. BSC views these approvals as a foundation for Novaland’s future debt negotiations.
With the NovaGroup-related entities holding a 38% ownership stake, BSC anticipates that the private placement to convert debt will occur first to maintain the group’s veto power, while the remaining two options will depend on the company’s negotiations.
While there are dilution risks for existing shareholders, BSC assesses that successful debt restructuring takes priority for the company at this point.
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