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Is Vietnam’s Economy About to Outpace Thailand’s?
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According to The Nation Thailand, Vietnam is solidifying its position as a rising economy in Asia, with the potential to surpass Thailand in various aspects.
Approximately 1.5 trillion baht (equivalent to 1.28 quadrillion VND) will be allocated for 250 infrastructure and housing projects nationwide.
The goal is to achieve a GDP growth rate of around 8% in 2025 and maintain double-digit growth in the following years, aiming to become an “Asian Tiger” economy and attain high income status by 2045.
Growth Drivers and Challenges
Exports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remain the primary growth drivers for the economy. This makes Vietnam susceptible to external shocks, especially given the broad-based tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on various partners, including Vietnam.
To mitigate risks, the Vietnamese government is boosting domestic demand through large-scale infrastructure investment packages.
In late 2024, General Secretary To Lam announced the beginning of a “new era of development,” marking the most comprehensive reform in decades.
This vision is likened to the development path of South Korea and Taiwan, which lifted millions out of poverty and into the ranks of Asia’s leading economies.
The growth trajectory is evident in Hanoi’s per capita income, which has risen from $1,200 per year in 1990 to the current $16,385, testament to Vietnam’s transformation into a global production hub.
However, Vietnam still faces challenges: the growth model reliant on cheap labor and exports is showing limits, requiring a strong shift towards high technology, green energy, and expansion of the private sector.
Thai Perspective: Vietnam’s Rapid Progress
Mr. Nonarit Bisonyabut, a senior researcher at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), commended Vietnam’s reform pace, especially in administrative restructuring for improved efficiency.
He noted that large markets like China and South Korea are prioritizing collaboration with Vietnam over Thailand as both Southeast Asian economies strive to become powerhouses in digital technology and artificial intelligence (AI).
“If Thailand does not reform seriously, its competitiveness will decline, and it will eventually be overtaken by Vietnam,” he warned.
Sharing this view, Mr. Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), observed that Vietnam is adeptly leveraging shifts in US tax policies and global trade regulations to its advantage.
He emphasized that Vietnam understands the necessity of thorough reform – from streamlining bureaucracy to cost reduction and eliminating redundancies – to maintain its competitive edge. This is a “lesson that Thailand should follow,” he added.
Mr. Poj Aramwattananont, President of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, also applauded Vietnam’s strategy of expanding infrastructure investment, seeing it as a proactive move to sustain growth and counter the impact of global trade policies.
While Vietnam accelerates through exports and infrastructure investment, Thailand lags, lacking clear and stable policies, which may erode investor confidence, he cautioned.
Diệu Linh
– 19:23 19/08/2025
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