The Fed’s Next Move: Will It Hike Interest Rates Again?

The US dollar is currently trading at a premium, with banks' buy rates hovering just below the prescribed ceiling. Since the turn of the year, the greenback has appreciated by almost 4% across the board in the banking sector.

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On August 27, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) set the daily reference exchange rate at 25,273 VND/USD, unchanged from the previous day. With a fluctuation range of 5%, commercial banks are allowed to trade the greenback at a range of 24,009 – 26,537 VND/USD.

During today’s trading session, the SBV lowered the selling price of USD with a term of up to 180 days at the Trading Center to 26,486 VND/USD.

Previously, starting from August 25, the SBV began selling foreign currencies with terms of up to 180 days and the right to cancel the contract early. However, this transaction is only available to credit institutions with a negative foreign currency status. The maximum foreign currency sold to each bank in each transaction is limited to balance their foreign currency status. For transactions of $100 million or more, credit institutions are allowed to cancel up to three times. If the transaction is less than $100 million, the cancellation limit is twice.

According to market analysts, the SBV’s provision of selling foreign currency with terms of up to 180 days (with the right to cancel early) aims to eliminate market expectations of further ceiling adjustments, thereby cooling down the foreign exchange market in the short term. This move is also expected to push the demand for USD in the banking system towards the end of 2025 and early 2026 – a period when foreign currency supply will increase due to remittances and the possibility of the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates.

However, after cooling down last weekend and the beginning of this week, USD prices at banks have rebounded.

At 12:00 noon, Vietcombank listed the buying rate for USD at 26,166 VND/USD and the selling rate at 26,536 VND/USD, an increase of 26 VND and 6 VND, respectively, compared to the previous day.

VietinBank and BIDV listed the selling rate for USD at 26,536 VND/USD, while significantly increasing the buying rate.

Other major banks, including Techcombank, ACB, MB, Eximbank, and Sacombank, also raised their USD selling rate to 26,536 VND/USD.

As a result, the selling rate for USD is currently very close to the regulated ceiling of 26,537 VND/USD. Since the beginning of the year, USD rates at banks have increased by nearly 4%, despite a 9% drop in the value of the USD in the international market. With the inability to further increase selling rates, many banks have significantly increased their buying rates, indicating that exchange rate pressure remains high.

In the unofficial market, the USD tends to decrease. At 12:00 noon, the buying and selling rates were listed at 26,630 VND/USD and 26,730 VND/USD, respectively, with the buying rate decreasing by 20 VND and the selling rate remaining unchanged compared to the previous day.

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