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The Resilient Vietnamese Economy: Global Institutions Forecast Bright Outlook for Vietnam’s Economic Growth

The Vietnamese economy is projected to flourish, with AMRO forecasting a 7% growth rate for 2025, followed by a slight dip to 6.5% in 2026. Standard Chartered's predictions echo this positive outlook, estimating a healthy 6.1% GDP growth for the entire year of 2025. Moreover, UOB's forecast for the period between 2026 and 2045 paints an even more promising picture, with an expected average annual GDP growth rate of 7% for Vietnam. These projections showcase the country's robust economic trajectory, positioning it as a prominent player in the region's economic landscape.

Administrator

5 September, 2025

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Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Group Research Head and Senior Economist at UOB (Singapore), forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 to be 6.9% and 7.0%, respectively.

Based on the data collected so far in 2025, Mr. Kin believes that there is room for these figures to increase further. However, the rise will not be significant due to the pressure from tariff-related issues that have not yet fully materialized.

UOB forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to be 6.9% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026.

For the period 2026-2045, UOB predicts an average annual GDP growth rate of 7% to be achievable for Vietnam. This will become a reality if the current reform and openness policies, along with investment and trade promotion and effective implementation, continue to be promoted and implemented.

“Assuming that labor productivity will continue to improve, with universal education for the people and in-depth training programs and research widely deployed. Innovation will continue to take place as education becomes more accessible and suitable for a wider range of subjects,” said Mr. Kin.

Similarly, the report “Vietnam Innovation and Private Investment 2025”, conducted by the Private Investment Development Organization (VPCA), the National Innovation Center (NIC), and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), presents a compelling picture that Vietnam is not only ready to attract investment but also to lead.

The report points to a rare combination of favorable factors in Vietnam, such as a real GDP growth rate of 7.1% in 2024, higher than most Asian economies. The economy is expected to reach a size of $1,100 billion by 2035, 2.5 times the current size. $25 billion in FDI disbursed in 2024, up 9% from the same period. The middle class is expected to account for 46% of the population by 2030. The digital economy currently contributes 18.3% of GDP, targeting 35% by 2030.

In its update late last July, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecast Vietnam’s economy to grow by 7% this year and 6.5% in 2026. Notably, both growth rates are the highest among the 10 ASEAN economies.

AMRO believes that Vietnam has sufficient policy space to support the economy when needed. Reforms to improve the investment environment and infrastructure are also helping Vietnam consolidate its position.

WB forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to be 5.8% in 2025.

In a recent macroeconomic report on Vietnam, Standard Chartered forecasts the country’s GDP growth for the whole of 2025 to be 6.1%.

Standard Chartered affirmed that Vietnam’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, despite short-term trade prospects showing signs of slowing down. Exports improved at the beginning of the year, and Vietnam continued to record a moderate trade surplus. Imports increased, mainly focusing on raw materials, production equipment, and components.

Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, shared, “Vietnam’s trade prospects remain promising, thanks to the strong recovery in exports and tourism. We believe Vietnam has a solid foundation to cope with the challenges ahead and maintain its growth momentum.”

Meanwhile, the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Update report predicts Vietnam’s real GDP growth to be 5.8% in 2025. GDP is projected at 6.1% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027.

According to the World Bank, to achieve this, Vietnam needs a more stable international environment, along with domestic reforms to improve productivity, invest in human capital, and promote a green economy.

Duy Quang

– 08:45 01/09/2025