The Stock Market Surge: A Tale of Joy and Disappointment

While some are rejoicing over significant gains, others are regretting their decision to stay on the sidelines, and some are choosing to play it safe after past shocks.

Following the gains in July 2025, the VN-Index continued its upward trajectory in August, recording a total increase of 179.69 points, or 11.96%, ending the month at 1,682.21 points. This was the strongest monthly gain in over seven and a half years, since January 2018. In terms of absolute points, this was the largest increase in more than eighteen and a half years, since January 2007. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 32.8%, far surpassing the full-year gains of 2024 (+12.11%) and 2023 (+12.2%).

A Mixed Reaction

The growth momentum came from three key sectors: banks rose by nearly 19%, securities by 21%, and real estate by over 14%. Strong cash flow into these sectors propelled the market forward as investors anticipated economic recovery and supportive interest rates.

Notably, liquidity also hit a new record, with average trading values surpassing VND 53 trillion (over USD 2 billion) per session, even reaching VND 80 trillion on some days. This robust demand drove up many stock prices, with some doubling in value within a few weeks.

Ms. Phuong, a resident of An Lac Ward in Ho Chi Minh City, shared her surprise and excitement at her investment gains. With no prior stock market experience, she entrusted her idle funds to her brother to invest on her behalf. Starting with VND 200 million, she gradually increased her investment to VND 500 million. “I’m happy with a monthly profit of 5-7%, but I’ve made over 20% in the last three months,” she said.

Mr. Phan Huu Quoc, an employee of a logistics company in Cat Lai Ward, Ho Chi Minh City, also expressed his enthusiasm. Despite investing for just over two years, his account has doubled in value.

Mr. Quoc recalled, “Initially, I traded frequently whenever I saw profits. But since the end of 2024, I started holding on to stocks with long-term potential. With my initial capital of VND 200 million and an additional VND 50 million invested when the VN-Index dropped in early April 2025, my account now stands at over VND 550 million.”

Amid the jubilation, there were also sighs of regret from those who missed the opportunity or sold too early, only to see their former holdings surge by 50-60%. Mr. Thanh, head of sales at a financial company in Ho Chi Minh City, sold his entire portfolio at the end of July, profiting 5-25% per stock.

At that time, he believed the market would plunge after surpassing the 1,500-point mark and chose to stay on the sidelines. “I even advised my friends to sell and hold cash. But the market only dipped slightly before surging again. Each time I considered buying back in, prices continued to climb. The stocks I sold have since risen by 30-40%,” Mr. Thanh recounted. He added that if he had held on to stocks like SSI, SHS, and SHB, his profits could have reached 70-80%.

Explaining his decision to “stay out” for the past month, Mr. Thanh shared that during the COVID-19 pandemic, he had experienced a forced sell-off by his brokerage, resulting in a loss of over VND 3 billion as the market crashed. This time, he was more cautious but ended up missing the opportunity.

A similar story unfolded for Mr. Phan Tan Hung, a resident of Cat Lai Ward. Despite his 20 years of experience, he opted for short-term trading to repay bank loans. However, in early July, he withdrew his money to repay the principal and hasn’t had a chance to borrow again. “I’ve been watching from the sidelines for the past two months,” he sighed.

Familiar Psychological Defense Mechanisms at Play

According to the Head of Brokerage at VPS Securities Company, the big winners in this period were not necessarily the most experienced investors but those who allocated their funds wisely. “They didn’t invest all their capital, using only 40-50%, and they chose solid stocks to hold onto. Even many new accounts made 10-15% profits in a month. The key was their optimism and their choice of stocks in the securities and banking sectors,” the expert analyzed.

Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan, CEO of VikkiBank Securities Company, offered his insights: “The past two to three months have been an emotional rollercoaster for investors. The more experienced investors tended to make smaller gains, while those with less pressure fared better. Those who rode the wave and picked the right sectors emerged as the big winners.”

Mr. Tuan pointed out that the market has been highly polarized recently, with stocks benefiting from government policies, such as VIC, VHM, VPL, and VRE, or those with unique stories, like Gelex (GEX, VIX, VSC…), outperforming the market. Notably, the banking and securities sectors became the focal points of cash inflows due to economic and market prospects, despite their previous sluggish performance. In contrast, technology and investment stocks have been range-bound.

According to Mr. Huynh Anh Tuan, the market outlook remains positive, but it’s normal to see adjustments of a few dozen or even a hundred points after a sharp rally.

Interestingly, the expert highlighted a paradox: excluding the impact of Vingroup, banks, securities, and Gelex-related stocks, the VN-Index would be hovering around the 1,500-point level. “This indicates that not all investors are winning,” he emphasized.

From a behavioral psychology perspective, Ms. Quang Thi Mong Chi, a lecturer at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities (USSH), explained that the caution exhibited by experienced investors was not due to a lack of financial knowledge but rather familiar psychological defense mechanisms.

“In behavioral psychology, people tend to fear loss more than they enjoy gains. The memories of past losses have left ‘psychological scars,’ making many investors approach the market with caution. Even though their rational minds recognize opportunities, the emotional fear of repeating past losses keeps them on the sidelines, opting for capital preservation,” Ms. Chi elaborated.

Another contributing factor is that people often rely on successful past behaviors as a “standard template” for future decisions. For veteran investors, their years of experience become a reference point. However, the stock market is notoriously unpredictable, and past strategies may become outdated. “When market dynamics change, past experiences can inadvertently ‘anchor’ investors’ psychology, keeping them in their comfort zone and allowing caution to override opportunities,” Ms. Chi added.

To avoid falling into this psychological trap, Ms. Chi advised investors to manage their emotions and maintain an independent mindset, avoiding herd behavior. Instead of giving in to fear, investors should focus on selecting companies with strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential.

“Investing in the stock market is not a short-term sprint but a marathon. In this journey, the winner is the one who demonstrates patience and discipline, overcoming the psychological traps they set for themselves,” the expert concluded.