Vietnam’s Stock Market Upgrade and the Potential Wave of Foreign Capital
As per the Vietnamese government’s stock market development strategy by 2030, Vietnam is expediting reforms to advance from a frontier market to an emerging market status. This move not only elevates the country’s positioning but also unlocks the potential to attract billions of dollars from ETFs, passive funds, and active international capital.
In September 2025, Vietnam’s stock market entered a phase of heightened interest from global investors as FTSE Russell prepared for its periodic review and potential upgrade from frontier to emerging market status.
SSI Research’s latest report suggests that Vietnam is likely to be upgraded by FTSE Russell in October 2025. This event could attract approximately $1 billion in ETF funds from index-tracking funds. Historical data from other markets indicates that stocks often perform well even before the upgrade, driven by expectations of increased foreign investment and improved investor sentiment.
With a market capitalization of approximately VND 90,000 billion (~$3.4 billion), average 30-day liquidity of $15.1 million, and nearly 24% foreign ownership limit, MSN (Masan Group) stands out as a promising candidate for inclusion in global indices in the event of an upgrade. However, MSN’s appeal goes beyond technical criteria, thanks to its solid core business foundation.
Robust Consumer and Retail Ecosystem
The key differentiator that sustains MSN’s long-term attractiveness to investors is its business model, closely linked to essential consumer needs in Vietnam’s fastest-growing sector. With a population nearing 100 million, Vietnam’s total retail sales of goods and consumer services in 2024 were estimated at VND 6,391 trillion, a 9% increase from the previous year, presenting vast opportunities for market-leading enterprises.
MSN boasts an integrated consumer and retail ecosystem, encompassing production and distribution through Masan Consumer (MCH), WinCommerce (WCM), Masan MEATLife (MML), and Phúc Long Heritage (PLH). WCM, with its leadership in modern retail, operating nearly 4,200 stores, provides a distinct advantage in product distribution for MCH and MML.
According to the company, the Q2 2025 financial results showcased not just impressive growth numbers but also how Masan maximizes the strengths of its integrated ecosystem across consumer goods, retail, food, and high-tech materials sectors. During the quarter, the group recorded net revenue of VND 18,315 billion and pre-MI net profit of VND 1,619 billion, bringing the 6-month cumulative net profit to VND 2,602 billion, nearly doubling the figure from the same period last year and surpassing 50% of the full-year plan. This performance attests to the synergy among its core business segments.
WinCommerce, the “flagship” of modern retail, continued its profitable streak for the fourth consecutive quarter. Q2 revenue increased by 16.4%, driven by the expansion of the WinMart+ model in rural areas, bringing the system closer to rural consumer demand, a rapidly growing market. Meanwhile, Masan MEATLife accelerated with revenue of VND 2,340 billion, a 30.7% increase, by focusing on the processed meat segment, aligning with consumers’ shift towards higher-value products. In parallel, Masan High-Tech Materials capitalized on the recovery in strategic mineral prices to improve profit margins, contributing to the overall growth.
Attractive Valuation in the Context of Market Upgrade
These positive financial results not only reinforce MSN’s position as a leading consumer and retail enterprise but also establish a solid foundation for the stock’s enhanced appeal to domestic and international investors.
On the stock exchange, MSN maintains its position among the largest market capitalization stocks on HOSE, with stable liquidity in the VN30 group, ensuring absorptive capacity for large-scale capital inflows. Notably, the shareholder restructuring in recent years has significantly improved the free float ratio, making the stock more compatible with the selection criteria of global indices. SSI Research identifies this as a key reason why MSN is considered one of the retail businesses most likely to benefit directly from capital inflows upon the market upgrade.
As Vietnam moves closer to its market upgrade goal, international institutional investors will prioritize stocks that meet both technical criteria and growth potential. MSN, with its essential consumer focus, improved financial performance, and ample room for foreign ownership, emerges as a potential gateway for foreign capital to penetrate deeper into the Vietnamese market.
