The Great Export Slump: China Down 90%, as the US Surges Ahead with a Surprising Commodity to Vietnam – A Global Third-Place Finisher in Consumption.

According to data from Nikkei Asia, US cotton exports to China have significantly declined in the first half of 2025, while surging in other Asian markets, notably Vietnam. This shift reflects the global apparel supply chain’s adjustment due to tariffs and US-China trade tensions.

LSEG data reveals that American cotton exports to China during the first six months dropped by approximately 90% compared to the previous year. In contrast, exports to countries like Pakistan, Turkey, and especially Vietnam, have increased considerably, with Vietnam witnessing a near tripling in volume.

The primary reason for this shift is the US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. In April, the Trump administration applied additional tariffs of up to 145%, later reduced to 30% when a temporary agreement was reached in May. However, the uncertainty around tariffs has prompted businesses to relocate their production from China to South and Southeast Asia, where labor costs are lower and preferential tax rates are offered.

China is actively reducing its dependence on US supplies by increasing cotton imports from Brazil, which has been its largest provider since 2024.

This change also impacts the US domestic market. According to the US Department of Agriculture, cotton exports for the fiscal year ending July reached 11.9 million bales, a 1% increase from the previous year. The decline in China was offset by rising demand from other markets. Exports for the upcoming fiscal year are projected at around 12 million bales.

Nevertheless, cotton prices remain stagnant. The benchmark cotton futures contract in New York is trading around 66 cents/pound, slightly down from 69 cents at the start of the year. Analysts suggest that the outlook for recovery depends largely on tariff developments and global apparel consumption. Regionally, India has temporarily removed import taxes on cotton since August to support its textile industry, a move that could open up more opportunities for US cotton to enter the market.

According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam is the third-largest cotton importer in the world, consuming 1.5 million tons annually. Vietnam is also the sixth-largest exporter of fiber and the third-largest exporter of garments, following only China and Bangladesh. In 2025, Vietnam’s cotton import demand is expected to surge, with an estimated additional 300,000 bales, bringing the total to 8.0 million bales.