Investments

Brighter Consumer Spending Outlook Anticipated by Year-End

The consumer market outlook for the final quarter of the year appears promising. A survey conducted by UOB Bank reveals that Vietnamese consumers are optimistic about purchasing big-ticket items. Representatives from the VCBF Fund anticipate that the appreciating asset market will further boost consumer confidence.

Administrator

19 September, 2025

Vietnam’s economy is experiencing positive growth, primarily driven by public investment and flexible monetary policies. However, private consumption, a critical economic driver, remains in a recovery phase.

In the first eight months of 2025, the total retail sales and consumer service revenue reached nearly VND 4,580 trillion, a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. Despite this growth, it remains lower than pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

According to the World Bank’s analysis, based on the first-half 2025 economic data, goods sales were modest, but spending on consumer services like accommodation, dining, and tourism grew by double digits. This surge was significantly fueled by international tourists, particularly from China. Additionally, consumer spending was boosted by events surrounding the 80th National Day celebrations, including military parades and a government allocation of VND 11 trillion for nationwide gifts.

In August 2025, the month preceding the National Day, total retail sales and consumer service revenue grew by 10.6%, surpassing the year’s previous monthly trends.

Expected Improvement

Current consumption growth remains below pre-pandemic levels

Source: General Statistics Office

Key drivers from the first half of 2025, such as credit, public investment disbursement, and tourism, continue to sustain momentum. Moreover, the notable rise in asset prices is expected to boost consumer confidence in the coming months, as noted by Mr. Nguyễn Triệu Vinh, Deputy Director of Investment at Vietcombank Fund Management Company (VCBF), in early September.

A VCBF representative mentioned that some retailers are confidently meeting their business targets ahead of schedule. Furthermore, data indicates a resurgence in demand for high-value products.

Multisector distributor Digiworld (HOSE: DGW), specializing in technology and household appliances, forecasts Q3/2025 revenue of VND 7 trillion, a 12% year-on-year increase, with post-tax profit reaching VND 150 billion, up 23%. The company’s growth is driven by new product distribution contracts and early sales of the iPhone 17.

For the first time in 2025, Vietnam is among the earliest markets to launch Apple’s iPhone, with pre-orders starting on September 12 and deliveries commencing a week later. This early launch may curb unofficial iPhone imports, expanding opportunities for distributors and retailers.

On September 11, Mr. Đoàn Văn Hiểu Em, CEO of The Gioi Di Dong (Mobile World), revealed on his personal page that over 92,000 customers had pre-ordered the iPhone 17 through their system.

Earlier, in July, phone and electronics retailers under Mobile World Investment Corporation (HOSE: MWG) recorded a 21% revenue growth.

Business Recovery

Monthly revenue of The Gioi Di Dong and Dien May Xanh in 2025 maintains growth compared to the previous year

Unit: VND trillion

Source: MWG periodic reports

Concerns in FMCG, Confidence in Big-Ticket Spending

Amid signs of improvement, a Worldpanel by Numerator report on the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market paints a gloomier picture. Vietnamese consumer confidence in Q2/2025 dropped to its lowest since the 2021 social distancing period, despite strong GDP growth. This decline is attributed to economic uncertainties due to unpredictable global trade, counterfeit goods, and substandard food safety concerns.

However, a UOB Bank survey offers a brighter perspective on big-ticket spending, such as furniture, appliances, and cars. Vietnamese consumer sentiment is notably more positive than in other Southeast Asian countries, reflecting optimism about current economic conditions, political stability, and social order.

In Vietnam, inflation is not a top concern, unlike in Malaysia, Singapore, or Thailand. Instead, Vietnamese consumers are more worried about climate change, natural disasters, pollution, and new U.S. tariff policies.

The UOB survey highlights that Vietnamese consumers are more confident in their financial outlook compared to their regional peers, fostering greater optimism in big-ticket spending.

Vietnamese Confidence in Financial Outlook

Survey Question: How do you expect your financial situation to change in one year compared to now?

Source: UOB Bank

Vietnamese Optimism in Big-Ticket Spending Surpasses Neighbors

Survey Question: Is now a good or bad time for consumers to purchase big-ticket items (e.g., furniture, refrigerators, TVs, cars, homes)?