When Will Hoa Phat Break Even on Its High-Speed Railway Steel Rail Project, After Claiming “Never to Define Losses but Still Proceed”?

Leading securities firms estimate that Hoa Phat's high-speed rail track factory will reach its break-even point once it achieves approximately 70% of its designed capacity, equivalent to an annual output of 500,000 tons.

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On August 19th, Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company (HoSE: HPG) commenced construction of a high-speed rail track and special structural steel production plant in Dung Quat, Quang Ngai. This facility aims to supply products for key national projects, including the North-South high-speed railway, the Hai Phong-Hanoi-Lao Cai railway, and several urban rail projects in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Previously, in late May, Hoa Phat and Germany’s SMS Group signed a contract to provide technology and production lines for rail and structural steel with a capacity of 700,000 tons per year.

According to the group, this is Europe’s most advanced production line, featuring a 4-axis super-flexible rolling mill system. This ensures superior precision and consistent quality, meeting international high-speed rail standards. Currently, 90% of global rail rolling mills use SMS Group’s technology and equipment.

With this investment, Hoa Phat Group will become the only company in Southeast Asia capable of producing high-speed rail tracks. The company expects to deliver its first batch of tracks for high-speed rail in Q1 2027.

In a May media interview, Mr. Nguyen Viet Thang, CEO of Hoa Phat, stated that the group has not disclosed specific profit figures. Therefore, claiming the group is indifferent to profits is inaccurate.

Vietcap estimates the pre-tax profit of the high-speed rail track plant at 773 billion VND annually.

According to the CEO, profit remains a core objective, as it directly benefits shareholders. Hoa Phat does not engage in projects solely for brand recognition. Thus, the group carefully considers and cautiously executes every investment plan.

“We never pursue projects knowing they will result in losses,” Mr. Thang emphasized.

Hoa Phat’s leadership added that for typical projects, HPG proceeds only when there is a 90% likelihood of success. However, for pioneering sectors like high-speed rail track production, the group accepts a 50% success rate due to long-term growth potential and opportunities to expand into other projects.

Vietcap’s analysis report projects the plant will generate approximately 11,400 billion VND in annual revenue and contribute around 150 billion VND to the state budget.

Based on the projected budget contribution, Vietcap estimates the plant’s annual pre-tax profit at 773 billion VND, corresponding to a pre-tax margin of nearly 7%. This is equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 10%, lower than Hoa Phat’s other steel segments (13.3% gross margin in 2024).

Bao Viet Securities believes that with a designed capacity of 700,000 tons per year, the rail track plant will supply high-value, advanced technology products, addressing domestic shortages and driving the group’s business growth.

If the plant achieves 70% of its design capacity (500,000 tons annually), it will break even.

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