Expert Insights on Economic Shifts and Effective Strategies for Vietnamese Businesses

ASEAN: A Strategic Direction for Vietnamese Businesses

According to Suan Teck Kin, amidst complex global tariff policies and exchange rate fluctuations, ASEAN stands as a strategic market that Vietnamese businesses should prioritize. Despite recent global economic uncertainties, ASEAN has demonstrated its resilience as a sustainable economic region, driven by effective cross-border policy coordination, deep intra-bloc integration, and political stability. Notably, FDI inflows into the region reached $225 billion in 2024, marking a nearly 10% increase from the previous year, surpassing the global average growth rate of 3.7% (UNCTAD 2025).

Within ASEAN, Vietnam’s economy continues to show positive signals. In the first six months, GDP grew by 7.52%, with exports remaining a key driver. July’s export turnover reached $42.3 billion, bringing the cumulative increase to nearly 16%. The trade surplus remains stable, the PMI index recovered to 52.4, industrial output rose by 9%, and FDI disbursement reached $13.6 billion after seven months.

However, the U.S. remains Vietnam’s largest export market, and over-reliance on a single market poses risks, particularly for key sectors like electronics, machinery, and furniture, which account for over 40% of total export turnover. Diversifying export markets, especially expanding into neighboring regions like ASEAN, is a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariff policies. This approach also leverages lower logistics costs, growing consumer demand, and the region’s dynamic young population. Engaging in regional supply chains further provides a platform for sustainable global market expansion.

VND Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Impact on Exports

Alongside market diversification, businesses must closely monitor VND exchange rate fluctuations to optimize exports. The Vietnamese Dong (VND) continues to face depreciation pressure against the USD, reaching 26,436 VND/USD in August 2025, a 3.4% decline since the beginning of the year, marking the fourth consecutive year of weakening. Contrary to the recovery trend of other Asian currencies, the VND underperforms due to strong foreign currency demand, trade uncertainties, and expectations of stable domestic monetary policy.

Suan Teck Kin notes that while the U.S. has reduced its “countervailing” tariff from 46% to 20%, risks such as the 40% tax on transshipment goods remain unclear, prompting businesses to reassess their supply chain strategies. Experts also highlight that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cutting cycle will lead to moderate USD weakness, causing the USD to depreciate against Asian currencies in the coming quarters. However, the pace of decline may be limited due to regional growth challenges and Asia’s central banks’ accommodative monetary policies.

Exchange rate volatility presents both opportunities and risks. A weaker VND enhances price competitiveness in international markets but increases import costs for raw materials and equipment. Businesses must adopt flexible risk management strategies, capitalize on deeper ASEAN cooperation, and diversify markets to reduce reliance on the U.S., stabilize revenue, and improve operational efficiency amidst prolonged currency fluctuations.

Opportunities for Vietnamese B2B Enterprises in the Global Market

By effectively managing exchange rate risks and leveraging ASEAN’s advantages, Vietnamese B2B enterprises can tap into global export-import potential, particularly through e-commerce. Digital platforms enable businesses to reach international customers without geographical or cost constraints, offering data analytics, smart marketing tools, cross-border services, and strategic consulting to optimize operations, enhance efficiency, and expand markets flexibly.

Suan Teck Kin emphasizes three critical factors for businesses expanding internationally: monitoring tax policy developments and trade regulations in target markets; understanding market-specific opportunities and challenges, including cultural, linguistic, and legal aspects; and navigating exchange rate volatility in emerging markets, which directly impacts output, pricing, and profit margins. Partnering with reliable local entities is key to mitigating legal, cultural, and business environment risks.

To effectively seize opportunities and manage risks, UOB offers comprehensive solutions, including regional supply chain financing covering the entire supply chain cycle—from procurement to payment, production to sales, and sales to debt recovery; trade financing, cross-border cash management, and liquidity solutions; and industry-specific expert support. With a strong presence in key markets such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam, B2B enterprises can shape internationalization strategies, expand global sales channels, and achieve sustainable growth amidst economic and currency volatility.

Additionally, in Vietnam, UOB operates a dedicated Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Advisory team to support domestic and international businesses in expanding their regional operations. This is particularly crucial for companies seeking to diversify internationally and leverage Vietnam’s growing role in global supply chains.