MBS Estimates Q3 Electricity Sector Profits: A Standout Name Doubles in Growth

In the projected Q3/2025 business results for the electricity sector, MB Securities (MBS) reports improved nationwide electricity consumption, with most power sources showing better mobilization rates.

Specifically, hydropower mobilization increased by approximately 3% compared to the same period in Q3/2024 (as of September 20), a modest growth due to strong mobilization in the previous year.

Coal-fired power mobilization rose slightly by 6% year-on-year, aligning with overall system demand growth. MBS notes that imported coal prices have dropped by ~25% since the beginning of the year, leading to a ~15% reduction in blended coal prices for power plants (GENCO3), thereby lowering coal-fired electricity prices.

Gas-fired power mobilization increased by 12%, primarily due to higher utilization of Southeast Region plants like Phu My and Nhon Trach 1&2, rebounding from low levels last year. Meanwhile, renewable energy (RE) mobilization grew by 11%, driven by increased capacity, with RE remaining a prioritized power source.

In the first nine months of 2025, MBS analysts highlight several key policies addressing long-standing industry challenges, including the adjusted Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) framework, pricing mechanisms for power sources, bidding processes, Direct Power Purchase Agreements (DPPA), and incentives for rooftop solar self-consumption.

Notably, Resolution 70 issued by the Politburo on September 16, 2025, outlines critical goals such as clean energy transition, transparent market mechanisms, and reduced monopolies.

“Moving into late 2025 and 2026, key developments to watch include formal resolutions for non-compliant RE projects, DPPA mechanism refinements, draft pricing frameworks for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), and pilot two-part tariff mechanisms,” the report states.