According to Trading Economics, global silver prices have surged, reaching $44.8 per ounce, marking a 14-year high. This uptick reflects investors’ anticipation of critical U.S. employment and inflation data, which will shape the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Over the past week, silver prices have climbed over 7%, with a 16% increase in the last month. Year-to-date, silver has soared by 55.2%, outperforming gold’s 42% gain. However, over the past 12 months, both metals have seen comparable growth of around 40%.
On September 24th, Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, suggested that interest rates may continue to decline as the central bank aims to restore price stability and support the labor market. Meanwhile, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, dismissed the notion of continuous rate cuts through year-end, widening the gap between current Fed officials and Stephen Miran, recently appointed by Donald Trump.
CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 92% probability of a rate cut in October, up from 87% the previous week.
Global silver price trends over the past year.
Analysts attribute silver’s sustained rally to a shift in demand dynamics over the past five years. From 2010 to 2020, weak demand and oversupply suppressed prices. However, industrial demand accelerated in 2021, driven by renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and electronics.
Nomura reports that global industrial silver demand hit a record 680.5 million ounces (Moz) in 2024, pushing total demand to 1,164.1 Moz, surpassing supply of 1,015.1 Moz. This resulted in a market deficit of 148.9 Moz. Above-ground stocks also plummeted from 22 months of supply in December 2020 to 13 months by the end of 2023.
China’s adoption of N-type solar panels, which use more silver, has been a key driver. Additionally, the gold-to-silver ratio of 84 indicates silver remains undervalued relative to gold, enhancing its investment appeal.
“Industry forecasts suggest known silver reserves could be depleted by 2050 at current consumption rates,” notes Gareth Nicholson, Investment Director at Nomura. “Silver’s dual role as an industrial commodity and a hedge against volatility makes it increasingly attractive.”
In Vietnam, silver prices have mirrored global trends, reaching new highs. At Phu Quy Jewelry Corporation, silver bars are trading at VND 1,713 million/tael (buy) and VND 1,766 million/tael (sell), yielding a 60.1% return over the past year, outpacing gold’s 52% gain. One-kilogram silver bars have also peaked at over VND 47,199 million/kg (sell).
With soaring global demand, tightening supply, optimistic forecasts, and new trade restrictions, silver is poised to remain a strategic commodity and a key hedge in the coming months.
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