According to Trading Economics, the global silver price has surged, reaching a 14-year high of $46 per ounce. Over the past year, this precious metal has seen a remarkable 45.7% increase.
The last time silver prices experienced such a significant rise was in 2020, with a 44% annual increase. During the same year, gold prices also rose by approximately 24%.
Analysts describe the silver price trend over the past decade as a story of dramatic shifts. From 2010 to 2020, the global silver market faced weak demand and excess supply, leading to a prolonged price slump. However, since 2021, the narrative has completely reversed, with industrial demand for silver soaring.
In 2024, industrial silver demand hit a record high of 680.5 million ounces, bringing total silver demand to 1,164.1 million ounces, as reported by Nomura. Meanwhile, global silver supply reached only 1,015.1 million ounces, resulting in a significant 148.9 million ounce deficit.
This structural shift is primarily driven by surging silver demand in three key sectors: renewable energy, electric vehicles, and electronics. Notably, China has been accelerating the adoption of N-type solar cells, which require higher silver content.
Silver’s appeal is further enhanced by the gold-to-silver price ratio, which currently stands at 84, indicating that silver is significantly undervalued compared to gold.
This ratio represents the number of silver ounces required to purchase one ounce of gold. A higher ratio suggests that gold is overpriced relative to silver, making silver an attractive investment opportunity.
Nomura forecasts that global silver demand will reach 1,148.3 million ounces this year, while supply is expected to be 1,030.6 million ounces. This will result in a 117.6 million ounce deficit, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages.
In the domestic market, silver prices in Vietnam continue to reach new highs. At Phu Quy Jewelry Corporation, silver bars are trading at VND 1,763 million per tael (buy) and VND 1,818 million per tael (sell). One-kilogram silver bars have also peaked, selling for over VND 48,479 million per kg.
The continued surge in silver prices indicates that buying pressure is no longer solely dependent on the weakening US dollar. Senior analyst Christopher Lewis notes that this is a positive sign, reflecting investor confidence in the precious metal’s prospects.
Lewis highlights that the $44 per ounce level remains a critical support threshold, while $40 per ounce is considered the true bottom in case of a deep market correction. He believes that silver’s primary trend is upward, making short-selling strategies largely unappealing to investors.
From a long-term perspective, the $42 per ounce level, previously the peak of a “bullish flag” pattern, is now a crucial support point for pullbacks. Technical analysis also suggests the formation of a V-shaped recovery pattern, where each correction sets the stage for a stronger rally.
“Current developments reinforce expectations that silver’s rally is far from over, especially as global capital continues to seek safe-haven assets amidst economic uncertainty,” Christopher Lewis emphasizes.
