On September 29th, the State Bank of Vietnam set the central exchange rate at 25,192 VND/USD, a 2 VND decrease per USD compared to the previous day. The central rate has fluctuated within a narrow range in recent days.
However, since the beginning of the year, the central exchange rate has risen by approximately 3.4%, a significantly faster increase than in previous years.
Similarly, the USD price at commercial banks like Vietcombank, BIDV, Eximbank, and Sacombank also dropped by 2 VND, trading at around 26,211 VND/USD for buying and 26,451 VND/USD for selling.
Despite this, the USD price at these commercial banks has increased by roughly 3.5% since the start of the year.
The USD price in Vietnam is expected to face less pressure from now until the end of the year. |
In the free market, the USD is trading at 26,550 VND/USD for buying and 26,650 VND/USD for selling, approximately 200 VND higher than the USD price at commercial banks.
The USD price in Vietnam has risen rapidly despite the US Dollar Index (DXY) losing about 10% internationally over the past 8 months. Currently, the DXY is trading at 98 points.
Latest forecast on the USD/VND exchange rate
Why has the exchange rate in Vietnam increased rapidly while the international USD has depreciated? According to Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council, although the USD has lost about 10% this year, the Vietnamese Dong has still depreciated by 3.4%. This notable phenomenon has several key causes.
Specifically, Vietnam’s balance of payments is negative due to a surplus in goods exports but deficits in services, particularly tourism and logistics. Tariff fluctuations have increased foreign currency hoarding. Gold price volatility and its disparity with global prices have also fueled smuggling, pressuring the foreign exchange market.
Interest rate differentials are another factor. The US maintains rates between 4.2% and 4.5%, similar to Vietnam’s overnight interbank lending rate. With low exchange rate risk, foreign currency flows tend to return to the US.
“Despite exchange rate pressures, VND interest rates remain stable to support economic growth. Notably, the exchange rate is expected to stabilize significantly from now until next year, especially as the Fed plans further rate cuts. Implementing Decree 232/2025 to replace Decree 24/2012 on gold market management will reduce pressure on the gold market and, consequently, the exchange rate. The VND is projected to depreciate by about 4% this year,” said Dr. Can Van Luc.
Amid exchange rate pressures in Vietnam, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, a member of the National Assembly’s Finance and Budget Committee, noted that achieving high GDP growth requires low interest rates to encourage investment, but this creates exchange rate pressures.
Recent exchange rate fluctuations highlight this trade-off. The Fed’s 0.25% rate cut weakened the USD, temporarily stabilizing the exchange rate. The State Bank’s use of forward foreign exchange sales has been effective and should continue leveraging such technical tools.
“Although the USD has weakened due to Fed rate cuts, pressures persist due to increased import demand at year-end for the shopping season, while exports to the US face risks from retaliatory tariffs. Stabilizing the exchange rate remains a key focus in macroeconomic management through year-end,” said Prof. Hoang Van Cuong.
Thai Phuong
– 14:11 29/09/2025
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