The Asian Development Bank (ADB) unveiled its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for September 2025 on September 30, offering critical insights into Vietnam’s economic trajectory.
In its latest update, ADB adjusted Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 6.7%, a slight increase from the 6.6% projected in April. Conversely, the 2026 growth outlook was revised downward to 6.0%, compared to the earlier 6.5% estimate.
ADB analysts highlighted Vietnam’s resilience in the face of global economic challenges. The nation’s economy demonstrated robust performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a 7.5% GDP growth rate—the strongest since 2010.
Building on this momentum, Vietnam’s industrial sector is poised for a 7.7% expansion in 2025, fueled by surging manufacturing exports. Foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursements reached $15.4 billion in the first eight months of 2025, the highest for this period in five years, further bolstering industrial growth.
The services sector is expected to sustain healthy growth at 7.4% in 2025, while agriculture is projected to expand by 3.4%. Inflation is forecast to remain moderate at 3.9% in 2025, easing slightly to 3.8% in 2026.
Vietnam is actively implementing fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to meet its ambitious 2025 growth target of 8.3–8.5%, with aspirations for double-digit growth in subsequent years. However, experts caution that external challenges, including U.S. reciprocal tariffs (20% on imports and 40% on transshipped goods), could dampen near-term growth prospects.
Additional risks stem from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East instability, and weakening demand from key trading partners. To mitigate these challenges, ADB recommends economic restructuring toward a more balanced model, emphasizing stronger domestic demand and export market diversification.
Given its robust fiscal position, Vietnam’s government is well-placed to support growth through targeted tax cuts, reduced business compliance costs, and expanded social spending for low-income households. Enhancing public investment efficiency remains crucial for sustaining growth and addressing infrastructure gaps.
Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, emphasized the importance of harmonizing fiscal and monetary policies to avoid over-reliance on monetary tools and maintain macroeconomic stability.
Long-term success, Chakraborty noted, hinges on comprehensive regulatory reforms addressing structural issues such as climate resilience, private sector competitiveness, state-owned enterprise efficiency, tax modernization, and digital transformation.
Nguyen Ba Hung, Principal Country Economist at ADB Vietnam, pointed out that domestic enterprises currently contribute only 25–30% of total exports, with the FDI sector dominating at over 70%. Hung stressed the urgency of strengthening Vietnam’s domestic private sector, particularly through advancements in science and technology, to enhance global competitiveness.
Asian Bank Revises Vietnam’s Growth Forecast Upward
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