Vietnam’s Consumer Market Rebounds, Domestic Demand Surges
The Vietnamese economy in Q3 2025 shows promising signs of recovery, driven by robust domestic demand. After a period of stagnation in previous years, consumer spending has rebounded significantly, becoming a key growth driver. According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), total retail sales and consumer service revenue in August 2025 reached VND 588.2 trillion, a 10.6% increase year-over-year. For the first eight months, this figure stood at VND 4,579 trillion, up 9.4%, surpassing the 8.9% growth rate in the same period of 2024.
Essential consumer goods like food, beverages, and household items continue to dominate spending, while the tourism sector’s recovery further boosts consumption. Favorable visa policies, promotional campaigns, and festive events attracted 1.68 million international visitors in August, a 16.5% increase year-over-year. Cumulatively, Vietnam welcomed 13.9 million international tourists in the first eight months, up 21.7% from last year. This influx has spurred spending on dining and retail, fueling the retail sector’s growth ahead of year-end.
These figures highlight consumer spending as a bright spot in Vietnam’s economy, especially as other drivers like exports and foreign investment face challenges. Notably, spending growth is not confined to major cities but is spreading to rural areas and satellite towns, thanks to expanding modern retail infrastructure. Modern retail channels are no longer limited to urban supermarkets but are reaching rural areas, as consumers increasingly prioritize safety, convenience, and quality control. This trend offers significant opportunities for domestic enterprises, which have a deep understanding of local needs and can rapidly scale operations.
Domestic Enterprises Poised for Breakthrough
In Vietnam’s retail landscape, domestic companies hold a distinct advantage due to their market insights and operational flexibility. Masan Group Corporation (HOSE: MSN) exemplifies this trend with its integrated consumer-retail ecosystem. Masan combines manufacturing and an extensive distribution network, creating a closed-loop growth cycle from production to consumption.
BVSC’s September 2025 update forecasts Masan’s 2025 revenue at VND 85,042 billion (+2.2% YoY) and post-tax profit at VND 3,501 billion (+75.1% YoY). BVSC rates MSN as OUTPERFORM with a target price of VND 106,000 per share (29% above the VND 81,800 closing price on September 29), citing growth drivers from WinCommerce (WinMart/WinMart+), Masan MEATLife (MML), Masan High-Tech Materials (MSR), and Phúc Long. Masan Consumer (MCH) is expected to recover strongly from 2026.
VDSC highlights MSN’s long-term potential, attributing it to its integrated “production-distribution-consumption” model. The report emphasizes that domestic demand recovery, Vietnam’s stock market upgrade, and MCH’s potential HOSE listing will support MSN’s valuation. This positions MSN as a strategic stock for investors eyeing Vietnam’s 100 million population and booming consumption. VDSC analysts project Masan’s Q3 2025 post-tax profit at VND 1,272 billion, up 81.4% YoY.
Despite its prospects, MSN faces challenges. Intensifying retail competition requires WinCommerce to balance growth with cost control. Fluctuating raw material and operational costs may pressure MML and MCH’s margins. Additionally, distribution restructuring and electronic invoice compliance could impact short-term results.
Overall, MSN is well-positioned to benefit from Vietnam’s consumer recovery and retail modernization. Its integrated ecosystem provides long-term competitive advantages, while BVSC and VDSC valuations and recent performance indicate substantial growth potential.
– 07:00 03/10/2025
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With a deft hand and an eye for detail, I weave a new introduction that captivates and enthralls, leaving the previous paragraph in the dust. The sentence, crafted with precision and an unparalleled command of the English language, now reads:
“Masan Group bolstered its investment in Sherpa with a substantial capital injection, demonstrating its unwavering commitment to the venture.”
