Market Outlook for Warrant Trading Week of October 6–10, 2025: Pessimism Continues to Rise

At the close of trading on October 3, 2025, the market saw 66 stocks rise, 176 fall, and 40 remain unchanged. Foreign investors continued their net selling streak, offloading a total of 1.23 million CW.

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I. MARKET TRENDS IN WARRANTS

By the end of the trading session on October 3, 2025, the market recorded 66 gainers, 176 losers, and 40 unchanged stocks.

Market Breadth Over the Last 20 Sessions. Unit: Percentage

Source: VietstockFinance

During the October 3, 2025 trading session, sellers dominated the market, causing most warrant prices to decline. Notably, the top decliners included CVPB2513, CSTB2515, CVHM2510, and CMBB2407.

Source: VietstockFinance

Total market volume on October 3 reached 56.54 million CW, up 13.78%; trading value hit 141.44 billion VND, a 10.88% increase from October 2. CHPG2520 led the market in both volume and value, with 4.78 million CW traded, equivalent to 14.7 billion VND.

Foreign investors continued net selling on October 3, totaling 1.23 million CW. CMSN2509 and CMSN2510 saw the highest net outflows. For the week, foreign investors net sold over 16.39 million CW.

Securities firms SSI, ACBS, KIS, HCM, and VPBankS currently issue the most warrants in the market.

Source: VietstockFinance

II. MARKET STATISTICS

Source: VietstockFinance

III. WARRANT VALUATION

Using a valuation method effective from October 6, 2025, the fair prices of actively traded warrants are as follows:

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: Opportunity costs in the valuation model are adjusted for the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free rate (government treasury bills) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, adjusted for warrant maturities.

According to this valuation, CVIC2507 and CVIC2508 are the most attractively priced warrants.

Warrants with higher effective gearing exhibit greater volatility relative to their underlying securities. Currently, CVNM2512 and CVNM2502 have the highest effective gearing ratios in the market.

Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Division, Vietstock Advisory Department

– 18:58 05/10/2025

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