Why Investors Must Stay Patient Despite Continuous Stock Market Erosion

Contrary to the anticipated positive market upgrades, stock investors are grappling with the dilemma of whether to cut their losses or hold onto their shares.

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The first week of October concluded with subdued activity in the stock market. The VN-Index dipped slightly by 0.9%, settling around 1,645 points, while the HNX-Index and UPCoM-Index retreated to 276 and 109 points, respectively.

Green on the Outside, Red Within: Foreign Investors Net Sell

Although the decline was modest, investors are concerned about the sharp drop in liquidity, which has halved to approximately VND 25 trillion per session compared to August when the VN-Index approached the 1,700-point peak.

Notably, foreign investors have net sold for 11 consecutive weeks, withdrawing over VND 7.2 trillion from the HoSE market last week alone. SHS Securities attributes the market’s pessimism to a lack of strong supportive news and mounting short-term losses.

Weakening capital flows have stifled market momentum, while selling pressure has broadened across sectors such as fertilizers, chemicals, construction, ports, insurance, energy, steel, and real estate.

On financial forums, investors describe the situation as “green on the outside, red within”—the index remains above the psychological 1,600-point threshold, but portfolios are suffering heavy losses. Many are caught in a cycle of stop-loss selling and re-buying, eroding their accounts significantly.

Mr. Lê Hoàng, an investor in Ho Chi Minh City, reports a 10% decline in his portfolio, with securities and real estate stocks down 15%. “Many margin traders are down 15-20% but hesitate to cut losses, hoping for a market rebound. Even positive news about market upgrades or Q3 earnings hasn’t lifted prices,” he notes.

Persistent net selling by foreign investors over recent periods.

Patience Awaits Market Upgrade Results

Nguyễn Tấn Phong, an analyst at Pinetree Securities, observes that the VN-Index has been consolidating for over a month, reflecting investor caution ahead of FTSE Russell’s market upgrade decision on October 8.

“The market remains ‘green on the outside, red within,’ with only a few large-cap stocks like VIC, VRE, and LPB supporting the index. Excluding these, the VN-Index would fall to 1,620-1,630 points,” Phong comments.

Despite market weakness, many securities firms view this as a necessary consolidation phase after the strong year-to-date rally. Index volatility is expected to narrow as investors await the upgrade outcome.

Thành Công Securities (TCSC) estimates a 90% chance of Vietnam’s market upgrade. However, the immediate impact will be psychological rather than tangible. “A sustained return of foreign buying is crucial for a genuine market rebound toward 1,700 points,” TCSC’s report emphasizes.

In the near term, experts advise investors to maintain moderate stock exposure, avoid high leverage, and await clearer signals post-October 8. The market is testing investor resolve, and those with robust risk management strategies are best positioned to weather the recovery.

The VN-Index has traded sideways for over a month, leaving investors grappling with losses.

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