Significant Challenges but High Potential
According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter is estimated to increase by 8.23% compared to the same period last year, only lower than the 14.38% growth rate in the same period of 2022 during the 2011-2025 phase.
Meanwhile, the GDP for the first nine months is estimated to rise by 7.85% year-on-year, also lower than the 9.44% growth rate in the same period of 2022.
With these figures, Ms. Nguyễn Thị Mai Hạnh, Head of the National Accounts System Division at the General Statistics Office, stated that to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 8%, the economy must grow by 8.4% in the fourth quarter, the highest growth rate since 2011.
To reach an annual GDP growth of 8.3%, the fourth quarter growth must hit 9.5%, and to achieve an annual GDP growth of 8.5%, the fourth quarter growth must reach 10.2%.
GDP in Q3 and the first nine months of the year is the second highest in 14 years (2011-2025). (Illustrative image)
Ms. Hạnh emphasized that these targets are highly challenging, especially given the global economic risks, political instability, and declining global trade pressures.
Echoing this sentiment, economic expert Dr. Bùi Kiến Thành noted that achieving the 8-8.5% growth target in 2025 requires overcoming numerous challenges. However, the results from the first nine months demonstrate Vietnam’s economic potential and resilience, with growth rates surpassing many previous years.
“Based on these results, I am confident that Vietnam’s economy will accelerate in the final quarter, and the 2025 annual growth target will exceed 8%. This also sets the stage for growth in subsequent years,” said Dr. Bùi Kiến Thành.
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trần Hoàng Ngân also predicted that achieving the 2025 economic growth target is feasible. “The 7.85% GDP growth in the first nine months accurately reflects the country’s socio-economic development,” he emphasized.
Key Actions to Achieve the Target
Ms. Mai Hạnh recommended maximizing growth drivers and favorable conditions in the final quarter to meet the annual target. The fourth quarter benefits from the momentum of the first nine months, peak global consumer demand boosting orders for electronics, textiles, footwear, processed agricultural products, and furniture. This, in turn, stimulates related sectors like transportation and warehousing.
Additional drivers include accelerated public investment disbursement before year-end, peak tourism during Christmas and New Year holidays spurring consumption, increased FDI disbursement, and a stable policy environment supporting business expansion.
Dr. Bùi Kiến Thành highlighted Vietnam’s recent efforts to remove institutional bottlenecks and improve policies to attract foreign investment. Total registered FDI in the first nine months reached $28.54 billion, up 15.2% year-on-year.
However, he urged Vietnam to create the most attractive investment environment for both domestic and foreign businesses, generate jobs, and expand export markets. This will ensure sustainable capital flows for economic development.
Experts believe boosting public investment is key to driving economic growth. (Illustrative image)
Dr. Võ Trí Thành emphasized that achieving over 8% growth in 2025 is a significant challenge, requiring the removal of bottlenecks to enhance business confidence and attract domestic and international investment.
He stressed the importance of accelerating public investment and implementing key projects. Each 1% increase in public investment disbursement can boost GDP growth by 0.058%. Additionally, every unit of public investment can stimulate 1.61 units of private investment, creating a ripple effect across the economy.
Dr. Thành noted that exports, investment, and consumption are the three pillars of economic growth. In 2025, exports face challenges due to volatile U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump, impacting global trade and consumer demand. Thus, investment, particularly public investment in key projects, becomes crucial.
“Swift yet prudent project implementation will drive current growth and ensure long-term development, bringing Vietnam closer to becoming a developed economy by 2045,” said Dr. Thành, urging the government to enhance project oversight.
Dr. Trần Hoàng Ngân called for synchronized measures by year-end, including institutional reforms, administrative improvements, and enabling strong localities like Ho Chi Minh City to lead growth.
“The government should prioritize legal reforms for the 2026-2030 plan, resolve stalled projects, optimize public assets, and boost consumption and tourism. With these measures, sustainable GDP growth above 8% is achievable,” he stated.
Dr. Ngân also emphasized the need for long-term strategies aligned with Vietnam’s 2030-2045 development vision, ensuring readiness for the new era.
Investors Remain Unfazed by Local Currency Depreciation Amid Strong Stock Market Performance
VinaCapital’s experts forecast a 4-5% depreciation of the Vietnamese Dong this year, with a similar outlook for next year. According to Mr. Kokalari, if the economy and stock market perform well, investors are unlikely to be overly concerned about this modest devaluation. Nonetheless, it remains a point worth monitoring.
MBB: Surging Prices Yet Remains a Long-Term Attractive Investment (Part 1)
The banking sector has demonstrated robust growth since the beginning of the year. Among its standout performers is Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (HOSE: MBB), which has achieved remarkable business results and boasts a diversified revenue structure.
Vietnam Sets New National Economic Goals
This marks a new milestone for Vietnam to strive towards.
Which Sector Contributes the Most to GDP Growth?
In the third quarter of 2025, Vietnam’s GDP is estimated to grow by 8.23% year-on-year, according to the General Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance. This growth rate, while impressive, is second only to the 14.38% surge recorded in the same period of 2022, marking it as the second-highest increase within the 2011-2025 timeframe.
Government Sets Target for Per Capita GDP to Reach $8,500 by 2030
The Vietnamese government has recently issued Resolution No. 306, outlining the adjusted national master plan for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision toward 2050. A key target set within this framework is to achieve a per capita GDP of approximately $8,500 by 2030, based on current prices. The plan also aims to restructure the economy, with the service sector contributing over 50% of GDP, the industrial and construction sectors accounting for more than 40%, and the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors making up less than 10%.
