Will Domestic Car Prices Continue to Drop Until Year-End Due to Oversupply?

Domestic car supply has surged well above actual consumption levels, leading to significant inventory buildup at dealerships. This imbalance has compelled manufacturers to implement aggressive discount campaigns to clear stock and stimulate consumer demand.

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According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office, an estimated 56,971 new cars were added to the Vietnamese market in September 2025. This figure includes both domestically produced and imported vehicles, marking a 5.4% increase compared to August (54,074 units).

Of this total, domestic production and assembly reached approximately 38,700 units, up 2.4% from August and 19.7% year-on-year. This growth highlights the robust recovery of Vietnam’s automotive industry.

In the first nine months of 2025, domestic automakers produced around 338,400 vehicles, a 52.7% surge compared to the same period in 2024, underscoring the sector’s strong rebound.

In the import segment, September 2025 saw 18,271 vehicles brought into Vietnam, with a total value of approximately $402 million. Compared to August, import volume rose by 12.3%, while value increased by 10.7%.

Cumulatively, Vietnam imported 156,092 complete vehicles in the first nine months, valued at $3.41 billion, up 24.8% in volume and 33.3% in value year-on-year.

Combining both domestic and imported supplies, Vietnam’s auto market welcomed nearly 500,000 new vehicles in the first nine months of 2025.

However, sales data from three major players—the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (VAMA), VinFast, and Hyundai—showed that only about 342,000 units were sold in the first eight months.

September sales figures have yet to be released, but being the Ghost Month traditionally slows down purchases. Market demand is expected to remain lower than August’s 40,000 units.

With current consumption rates, inventory levels are estimated to remain high, potentially exceeding 100,000 units, including carryover stock from 2024.

The Subaru Forester VIN 2024 has been among the most heavily discounted models for several months.

As of October 2025, many dealerships are still offering promotions to clear 2024 inventory (VIN 2024) and older stock.

The significant gap between production and sales indicates market pressure, forcing manufacturers to launch promotions to reduce inventory and boost new vehicle sales.

This price-cutting trend spans from economy to luxury vehicles, affecting Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and European brands. Even segment leaders like the Mazda CX-5, Mitsubishi Xpander, Ford Ranger, and Ford Everest are offering aggressive discounts to maintain market share.

Given the slow post-Ghost Month recovery, these discounts are expected to continue until year-end.

However, the final quarter is peak shopping season. Promotions will be crucial in attracting buyers and boosting auto sales.

The domestic auto price war is expected to persist until year-end.

Conversely, year-end promotions offer buyers the best prices, thanks to manufacturer and dealer incentives. Additionally, new model launches are expected to stimulate domestic demand.

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