Domestic Demand and Global Capital Flows Fuel Growth Momentum
According to a report by SSI, out of 42 analyzed listed companies, 23 are projected to grow in Q3/2025, notably in retail, steel, seaports, and thermal power sectors. This highlights a clear economic divergence: while some industries face ongoing cost pressures and unstable demand, the retail consumer sector demonstrates resilience, driven by a shift to modern retail channels and more stable consumption trends.
For Masan Group (HOSE: MSN), SSI forecasts Q3/2025 after-tax profit at approximately VND 1.7 trillion, up 31% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter. The company’s actual figures may exceed this, reaching nearly 90% of the annual profit target in just nine months. This reflects significant operational improvements and the success of focusing on high-growth potential segments.
Based on this, multiple securities firms have revised their forecasts upward. VCBS expects Masan’s 2025 revenue to reach VND 87.27 trillion, with after-tax profit at VND 5.6 trillion, setting a target stock price of over VND 100,000 per share. BVSC also forecasts revenue of VND 85.042 trillion and parent company after-tax profit of VND 3.501 trillion, raising MSN’s valuation to VND 106,000 per share, approximately 30% above current market prices.
With Vietnam’s upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market status by FTSE Russell in September 2026, global financial institutions like J.P. Morgan, HSBC, SSI Research, and SHS Research predict significant foreign capital inflows into Vietnam by year-end, focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals like Masan Group.
J.P. Morgan estimates Vietnam could attract $1.3 billion in passive capital during the initial upgrade phase, with around 22 large-cap stocks added to the FTSE Emerging Index. MSN is a strong contender due to its market capitalization, liquidity, and leadership in the consumer-retail sector. SHS Research projects total inflows of up to $3.4 billion, including $1.5 billion in passive and $1.9 billion in active capital, with active funds likely to act early ahead of the March 2026 mid-term review.
Sustainable Growth Through Ecosystem Synergies
Masan’s Q3 growth is bolstered by synergies across its consumer-retail ecosystem. WinCommerce led with record Q3 revenue surpassing VND 10 trillion, driven by strategic network expansion, operational optimization, and technology integration.
Masan MEATLife (UPCoM: MML) showed significant profit improvement in August 2025, with revenue of VND 999 billion and net profit of VND 35 billion. Its focus on fresh meat and value-added processed foods has solidified its role as a key profit driver. Meanwhile, Phúc Long, after restructuring, has stabilized operations, concentrating resources on high-performing stores in Hanoi and HCMC, enhancing overall efficiency.
Despite distribution channel shifts and seasonal challenges, Masan Consumer (UPCoM: MCH) maintains a positive Q4 outlook, entering a peak consumption period for food and consumer goods.
Overall, balanced recovery across retail, food, and beverage segments has stabilized profit structures. VCBS forecasts Q3/2025 revenue at VND 21 trillion and after-tax profit at VND 1.7 trillion. Full-year projections range between VND 85-87 trillion in revenue and VND 3.5-5.6 trillion in profit, marking 30-75% growth compared to 2024. This underpins analysts’ confidence in Masan exceeding its annual targets.
However, experts caution about intensifying competition and margin pressures from expansion costs and shifting consumer behaviors. Maintaining double-digit growth amid these challenges highlights Masan’s adaptability and operational efficiency during a dynamic market phase.
Q3/2025 forecasts indicate the consumer-retail sector’s recovery after a volatile period. Profit improvements across segments, coupled with optimistic brokerage projections, reflect growing confidence in domestic market resilience. While growth prospects are strong, companies must navigate cost fluctuations, competition, and evolving consumer preferences to turn expectations into tangible results.
– 08:49 13/10/2025
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