According to a report by Mirae Asset Securities, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has officially accepted a petition to investigate alleged tax evasion on imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel from China. This move aims to address potential circumvention of anti-dumping duties, a development that bodes well for Hoa Phat Group (HPG), Vietnam’s leading steel producer.
HPG stands to benefit significantly from this investigation, given its dominant 36% market share in Vietnam’s HRC segment as of the first eight months of 2025. The probe not only safeguards HPG’s current production capacity but also positions the company to capitalize on stable demand and expanded output from its Dung Quat 2 plant’s second blast furnace.
In the near term, the MoIT’s acceptance of the petition has prompted buyers to exercise caution with imported HRC, reducing its consumption and shifting demand toward domestically produced HRC since mid-September 2025.
The MoIT will now review the petition and decide whether to initiate a formal investigation within 45 days, with an official decision expected before November 2025.
Mirae Asset forecasts robust growth for HPG in 2025, projecting a 12% increase in steel revenue and a 37% rise in operating profit. This performance is expected to drive consolidated revenue up by 12% and after-tax profit by 27% year-on-year, fueled by expanding profit margins and steady sales volume improvements.
Following a lag in price adjustments relative to rising raw material costs in July and August, HPG has implemented two consecutive monthly HRC price hikes. Two key drivers underpin HPG’s future growth prospects:
(1) Profit margins are anticipated to recover from Q4/2025 onward, following a Q3 contraction, as recent price increases offset higher costs of imported coke and iron ore.
(2) Accelerated capacity expansion at Dung Quat 2. While Mirae Asset projects 2025 output at 11.3 million tons (up 20.6% year-on-year), HPG’s current strong production momentum (99% HRC utilization in September) and the imminent contribution from Dung Quat 2’s second blast furnace could yield even more optimistic volume prospects than currently forecast.
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