Home Stock Market Derivatives Market on October 16, 2025: Lingering Uncertainty Ahead of Expiry Session

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Derivatives Market on October 16, 2025: Lingering Uncertainty Ahead of Expiry Session

On October 15, 2025, most VN30 and VN100 futures contracts closed higher. Despite the VN30-Index’s slight decline, a small-bodied candlestick pattern emerged alongside trading volume surpassing the 20-session average, indicating lingering investor hesitation.

Administrator

18 October, 2025

I. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE STOCK MARKET INDEX

I.1. Market Trends

VN30 futures contracts saw a unanimous rise during the trading session on October 15, 2025. Specifically, 41I1FA000 (I1FA000) increased by 0.39%, reaching 2,022 points; 41I1FB000 (I1FB000) rose by 0.27%, hitting 2,015.3 points; the VN30F2512 (F2512) contract gained 0.33%, closing at 2,014.6 points; and 41I1G3000 (I1G3000) climbed 0.11%, ending at 1,984 points. The underlying index, VN30-Index, closed at 2,009.64 points.

Meanwhile, VN100 futures contracts experienced mixed movements during the same session. Notably, 41I2FA000 (I2FA000) surged by 1.03%, reaching 1,949.8 points; 41I2FB000 (I2FB000) increased by 0.42%, closing at 1,933.9 points; 41I2FC000 (I2FC000) rose by 1.1%, ending at 1,926 points; and 41I2G3000 (I2G3000) dipped by 0.1%, settling at 1,915 points. The underlying VN100-Index closed at 1,937.17 points.

During the October 15, 2025 session, the 41I1FA000 contract opened positively in the first half, favoring the Long side. However, the upward momentum slowed as selling pressure re-emerged, causing I1FA000 to adjust and retreat close to the reference level before the midday break. In the afternoon session, the contract entered a tug-of-war phase, but buyers maintained control, helping I1FA000 close with a nearly 8-point gain.

Intraday Chart of 41I1FA000

Source: https://stockchart.vietstock.vn/

At the close, the basis of the 41I1FA000 contract widened compared to the previous session, reaching 12.36 points. This indicates a more optimistic sentiment among investors.

Movements of 41I1FA000 and VN30-Index

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: Basis is calculated using the formula: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN30-Index

Trading volume and value in the derivatives market decreased by 16.55% and 16.91%, respectively, compared to the previous session on October 15, 2025. Specifically, the trading volume of I1FA000 dropped by 18.52%, with 281,052 contracts matched. The trading volume of I2FA000 reached 214 contracts, up 53.96%.

Foreign investors returned to net buying, with a total net buying volume of 989 contracts during the October 15, 2025 session.

Daily Trading Volume Trends in the Derivatives Market. Unit: Contracts

Source: VietstockFinance

I.2. Futures Contract Valuation

Based on the fair pricing method as of October 16, 2025, the reasonable price range for futures contracts currently trading in the market is as follows:

Summary Table of Derivatives Valuation for VN30-Index and VN100-Index

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: Opportunity costs in the pricing model have been adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free treasury bill rate (government treasury bill) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments appropriate for each futures contract.

I.3. Technical Analysis of VN30-Index

During the October 15, 2025 session, the VN30-Index experienced a slight decline, accompanied by a small-bodied candlestick pattern and trading volume exceeding the 20-session average. This suggests lingering investor hesitation.

Currently, the index remains close to the Upper Band of the Bollinger Bands, while the MACD indicator continues to rise after giving a buy signal. This indicates that the medium-term upward trend persists.

However, the Stochastic Oscillator continues to weaken after giving a sell signal in the overbought region. If conditions do not improve and the indicator exits this region in upcoming sessions, the risk of short-term correction will increase.

Technical Analysis Chart of VN30-Index

Source: VietstockUpdater

II. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE BOND MARKET

Based on the fair pricing method as of October 16, 2025, the reasonable price range for futures contracts currently trading in the market is as follows:

Summary Table of Government Bond Futures Contract Valuation

Source: VietstockFinance

According to the above valuation, the GB05F2512, 41B5G3000, 41B5G6000, GB10F2512, and 41BAG3000 contracts are currently attractively priced. Investors may focus on and consider buying these futures contracts in the near future, as they present a bargain in the market.

Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Department, Vietstock Consulting Division

– 18:28 15/10/2025