Vietnam’s Economy Poised to Surpass Thailand’s in the Near Future

This is a monumental goal for Vietnam.

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At the 1st National Congress of the Government Party Committee for the 2025-2030 term, Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Hoa Binh presented the political report of the Government Party Committee’s Executive Board for the 2020-2025 term.

Vietnam’s GDP has grown from $346 billion in 2020, ranking 37th globally, to over $510 billion in 2025, climbing five positions to 32nd worldwide and 4th in ASEAN. Per capita GDP has increased 1.4 times, rising from $3,552 to approximately $5,000, entering the upper-middle-income country group.

State budget revenue for 2021-2025 is estimated at 9.6 quadrillion VND, 1.36 times higher than the 2016-2020 period and surpassing the target of 8.3 quadrillion VND (an increase of over 15.6%). Trade volume has risen annually, reaching a record $850 billion in 2025, placing Vietnam among the world’s top 20 trading nations with a significant trade surplus.

For the 2025-2030 term, the Government Party Committee aims for rapid and sustainable development, striving to become a modern industrialized, upper-middle-income developing nation by 2030, with a GDP ranking among the top 30 global economies and 3rd in ASEAN. Economic growth from 2026 to 2030 is targeted at a high rate, ensuring major economic balances.

Specifically, the average GDP growth rate is expected to reach 10% or higher annually, with per capita GDP projected at around $8,500 by 2030.

Currently, within ASEAN, Indonesia leads with a nominal GDP of approximately $1.4 trillion in 2025, according to Visual Capitalist. With a population exceeding 280 million, Indonesia dominates both domestic supply and demand, making it a key regional investment destination.

Despite its small population (~6.1 million), Singapore’s economy ranks second in ASEAN with a nominal GDP of around $565 billion (2025 estimate), boasting the highest per capita GDP in the region (~$92,930).

Thailand, with its advanced manufacturing, tourism, and services sectors, holds the third position in ASEAN, with a GDP of approximately $546 billion in 2025.

Meanwhile, IMF and other organizations forecast Vietnam’s GDP to surpass $500 billion in 2025, securing the fourth position in ASEAN.

Thus, if Vietnam enters the top 3 ASEAN economies in the next five years, it will replace Thailand’s current position.

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