“Sky-High Prices, Sold-Out Properties: A Real Estate Market Recovery or Looming Risk?”

Supply and Prices Surge Significantly

At the Q3 and 9-month 2025 Real Estate Market Report event themed “Vietnam Real Estate Market: Identifying Inefficiencies and Solutions,” Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association and Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS), stated that Vietnam’s real estate market continues to show positive growth in supply, transactions, and prices, driven by a robust economy.

At a separate panel discussion titled “Addressing Affordable Housing Shortages and Solutions to Attract Residents to New Urban Areas,” Dr. Dinh revealed that the first nine months of 2025 saw a supply of over 100,000 residential units. Prices for villas, townhouses, and shophouses ranged from VND 50 to 400 million per square meter, a 5-10% increase from previous launches. Apartment prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City also rose sharply. The market absorption rate was highly positive, with nearly 60,000 transactions, double that of the same period in 2024.

Le Dinh Chung, a member of the VARS Market Research Task Force and CEO of SGO Homes, provided deeper insights into pricing. Newly launched projects, though priced higher than the previous year, were well-absorbed, with some selling out on the first day. This strong demand stems from genuine housing needs and increased investment activity, fueled by low-cost capital and inflationary pressures driving demand for safe-haven assets.

In Q3 alone, the market recorded approximately 34,000 successful transactions, boosting the absorption rate to 66%, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, as inventory was cleared. New supply absorption reached 77%, equivalent to 27,000 transactions, up 23%. Apartments dominated transactions, accounting for over 66% with an 81% absorption rate, while low-rise segments also performed well at 60%.

For the first nine months of 2025, the absorption rate for new supply reached 68%, with over 58,000 successful transactions, double the same period in 2024. Most transactions were from second-home buyers.

Mr. Chung noted that prices for newly launched properties remain high, driving up secondary market prices. Secondary transactions became more active as buyers shifted from high-priced primary projects, mostly future developments, to resale properties. However, actual transactions were limited due to scarce available inventory, as most owners held onto their properties, anticipating price increases.

In Hanoi, primary market prices surged, raising overall market prices. Many apartment projects saw increases of hundreds of millions to billions of VND in short periods, especially in well-developed urban areas. In Ho Chi Minh City, price increases spread across projects with complete legal documentation and near key infrastructure. By late Q3, strong investment from the North, particularly Hanoi, caused prices to rise up to 5% in a week.

In Q3/2025, Hanoi led the country in apartment price growth, followed by Da Nang, with Ho Chi Minh City also showing significant increases. Compared to the base period, average prices rose by 96.2% in Hanoi, 72.6% in Da Nang, and 56.9% in Ho Chi Minh City.

Average apartment prices in Q3/2025 were VND 78.9 million/m² in Hanoi (up 5.0% QoQ), VND 81.6 million/m² in Ho Chi Minh City, and VND 67.4 million/m² in Da Nang (up 7% QoQ). From 2019-2025, Da Nang’s apartment prices grew 1.6 times faster than Ho Chi Minh City’s, driven by new high-priced projects setting a new market benchmark.

Price Stability Requires Government Intervention

Pham Thi Mien, Vice Director of the Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute, noted that despite positive signals, the market faces challenges: (1) high property prices and market risks; (2) supply-demand imbalances; (3) rapid real estate credit growth; (4) fragmented, non-transparent information; and (5) legal framework issues. Without timely resolution, these issues could hinder sustainable industry growth and economic development.

For Q4 2025, Ms. Mien predicts improved new supply from large-scale projects. Transactions will rise with supply but focus on projects with complete legal status, quality infrastructure, and reputable developers.

Property prices will continue rising as cheap capital fuels investment demand, while limited supply persists. With scarce land and rising material costs, developers focus on high-end segments to ensure profits, targeting buyers with strong financial capacity and long-term asset expectations. Price stability will require effective government intervention.