Today’s Coffee Prices (Oct 19): Harvest Season Sees Unexpected Rise – What’s Driving It?

Coffee prices today are significantly higher than they were at the same time last year, as Vietnam enters its harvest season.

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Today, October 19th, domestic coffee prices hover around 114,300 VND/kg, a 500 VND/kg increase from last week.

This Season’s Prices Outpace Last Year’s

Compared to the start of last season, coffee prices are currently 4,000–5,000 VND/kg higher.

As it’s early in the harvest, farmers are only selectively picking ripe coffee cherries (known as “cà phê bói”) rather than large-scale harvesting. They’re primarily selling fresh coffee to agents at 21,000–24,000 VND/kg. For context, approximately 5 kg of fresh coffee yields 1 kg of dried coffee beans.

Last week, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange rose by 1.61% (72 USD/ton), reaching 4,552 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices surged by 6.57% (540 USD/ton), hitting 8,760 USD/ton.

Farmers are optimistic about a bountiful, profitable harvest.

What’s Driving the Price Increase?

According to expert Nguyễn Quang Bình, the price rise stems from trade policy uncertainties.

For Arabica coffee, a 50% import tax on Brazilian beans has spurred investors to buy heavily on the exchange, driving inventories to their lowest level in 19 months.

Vietnam’s Robusta coffee is also benefiting, as its lower price compared to Arabica leaves room for further increases.

However, trade congestion in the coffee market poses risks of price drops if sellers can no longer store their inventory.

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