Vietnam’s Economy Reaches a Milestone: $510 Billion GDP

Exciting Projections for 2025: Anticipated GDP Growth Exceeds 8%; Economy Reaches $510 Billion, Climbing to 32nd Globally; Per Capita GDP Estimated at $5,000

On October 20th, during the opening session of the 10th National Assembly of the 15th term, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh presented the government’s report on the socio-economic achievements of 2025 and the 2021-2025 period, along with the proposed socio-economic development plan for 2026. Amidst a complex and unpredictable global landscape, with many unforeseen challenges, Vietnam has demonstrated remarkable resilience, achieving or surpassing 22 out of 26 key socio-economic targets, including all social and social welfare goals.

Resilience Against External Shocks

Vietnam’s economy has proven its ability to withstand external shocks, maintaining one of the highest growth rates globally. The 2025 GDP is projected to grow by over 8%, with an average growth rate of 6.3% from 2021 to 2025, surpassing the previous term’s 6.2%. Notably, the economy has expanded from $346 billion in 2020 to $510 billion in 2025, climbing five positions to rank 32nd globally. Per capita GDP for 2025 is estimated at approximately $5,000, 1.4 times higher than in 2020, placing Vietnam in the upper-middle-income category.

Prime Minister Chinh highlighted three strategic breakthroughs in institutions, infrastructure, and human resources. By the end of 2025, Vietnam is expected to complete 3,245 km of highways, 1,711 km of coastal roads, and Phase 1 of the Long Thanh International Airport. The National Innovation Center and the National Data Center have become operational, with Vietnam’s innovation index ranking 44th globally and its e-government development index rising 15 places since 2020.

For 2026, the government aims for a GDP growth rate of 10% or higher, per capita GDP of $5,400 to $5,500, an average CPI of around 4.5%, an 8% increase in labor productivity, and a 1% to 1.5% reduction in the multidimensional poverty rate. The government plans to maintain public debt within limits, increase development investment to 40% of the total budget, and reduce regular expenditures by 10% to allocate more resources for social welfare.

In science, technology, and education, the government aims to train 100,000 engineers in semiconductor and AI fields, establish English as a second language, and integrate AI into the secondary education curriculum. Plans also include developing national universities, high-quality vocational training institutions, and implementing 11 strategic technology groups. Additionally, initiatives will address air pollution and traffic congestion in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, advance modern and dual-use defense industries, and implement climate change adaptation programs in the Mekong Delta, Central region, Central Highlands, and Northern region.

Effective Gold Market Management and Capital Flow Enhancement

Phan Van Mai, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, praised Vietnam’s remarkable efforts and comprehensive achievements across most sectors. Notably, 2025 saw an impressive growth rate of approximately 8%, among the highest in the region. The final two years of the term, especially 2025, witnessed historic decisions. Comprehensive institutional reforms, streamlined governance, the implementation of a two-tier local government model, significant legal reforms, strategic infrastructure development, and private sector growth have laid a strong foundation for the next phase.

Despite these achievements, the committee noted ongoing challenges. The growth target faces pressure as key drivers like exports, consumption, and investment lack sufficient momentum. While public investment is substantial, disbursement progress and efficiency are inadequate, with only about 50% of the plan achieved by September 2025, creating significant year-end pressure.

Macroeconomic risks persist, including challenges in exchange rate management, a sluggish corporate bond market, and a volatile gold market, hindering medium and long-term capital mobilization. Phan Van Mai emphasized the need for a realistic assessment of the real estate market, noting that credit to this sector increased by nearly 19.7% by August 2025, while production and business financing remains difficult. The construction sector’s non-performing loan ratio stands at 11.33%.

Small and medium-sized enterprises face significant pressure due to unresolved private investment issues. While overall credit grew by 12.04%, credit to these enterprises only increased by 9.62%. Administrative procedures remain cumbersome, compliance costs are high, and digitalization efforts lack coordination. The committee also noted challenges in implementing the two-tier local government model, particularly in organization and personnel.

To achieve its goals, the committee recommends maintaining macroeconomic stability, implementing prudent monetary policies, and leveraging fiscal expansion effectively. Flexible, proactive, and cautious fiscal and monetary policies are essential, along with ensuring energy, food, and financial security, and effectively managing the gold market. Efforts should focus on enhancing capital flows, directing credit to production, business, and priority sectors, and driving economic growth.

On October 21st, the National Assembly will discuss in groups the 2025 and 2021-2025 socio-economic reports, financial and budgetary reports, and term reports from the President, Government, National Assembly, Supreme People’s Court, Supreme People’s Procuracy, and State Audit.