MSN Tops ETF Buy List in Q4 Rally

According to SSI Research, during the Q4/2025 portfolio rebalancing, Masan (HOSE: MSN) is forecasted to rank among the Top 3 stocks with the strongest net buying by ETFs. Additionally, it is expected to enter the Top 10 of the STOXX Vietnam Total Market Liquid Index, a benchmark widely replicated by international investment funds.

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The inclusion of MSN stocks in global indices and investment portfolios underscores international investors’ confidence in Masan’s financial health, market capitalization, and long-term growth prospects. As Vietnam increasingly attracts international capital due to expectations of market upgrades, companies like Masan, with transparent operations, large scale, and sustainable profitability, are seen as top candidates for foreign funds’ portfolios.

The Appeal of a Stable Business Foundation

In the first nine months of 2025, Masan is estimated to have achieved 90% of its full-year core profit plan, reflecting better-than-expected operational efficiency. This result stems from consistent growth across multiple core business segments, with a focus on the consumer-retail sector.

In the retail segment, WinCommerce (owner of the WinMart/WiN/WinMart+ chain) recorded third-quarter 2025 revenue surpassing 10 trillion VND, the highest since its establishment. By the end of September, WCM had opened 464 new stores, with nearly 75% being the WinMart+ model in rural areas. The Central region contributed 227 stores, equivalent to 50% of the total new openings in the year, indicating that WCM’s expansion strategy is on track. All newly opened stores this year have been profitable.

In August, Masan MEATLife (MML) achieved revenue of 999 billion VND (+11.1%), with after-tax profit increasing by 60.5% to 35 billion VND, reflecting consumers’ shift towards branded products with clear origins.

In the high-tech materials segment, Masan High-Tech Materials (UpCom: MSR) benefited from recovering tungsten prices, while Phúc Long and Masan Consumer continued to boost sales, optimize operations, and enhance customer experience. Thanks to the integrated “production-distribution-retail” model, Masan effectively controls costs, optimizes the supply chain, and ensures sustainable profit margins, making MSN stocks attractive to long-term institutional investors.

Momentum from Favorable Macro Context and Market Upgrade

After a long process of meeting criteria for transparency, liquidity, and foreign investor accessibility, Vietnam was officially upgraded by FTSE Russell from “Frontier Market” to “Secondary Emerging Market” in the October 8, 2025 review. This upgrade is expected to take effect from the September 2026 classification period, following the next review in March 2026.

This is a significant milestone for Vietnam’s capital market, opening opportunities to attract billions of USD in capital from global ETFs, passive funds, and institutional investors. According to SSI Research, ETF inflows alone could reach around 1 billion USD in upcoming portfolio rebalancing periods. However, in the short term, the scale of capital inflows will depend on the global economic context and risk appetite of emerging market funds.

In this context, stocks with strong fundamentals, large scale, and high liquidity are expected to attract foreign capital earliest, with Masan (HOSE: MSN) standing out. With a market capitalization of over 133 trillion VND (~5 billion USD), foreign ownership exceeding 70%, and an integrated consumer-retail ecosystem, Masan is a strong candidate for global indices after Vietnam’s upgrade. SSI Research forecasts that MSN could attract approximately 98 million USD in foreign capital in the initial phase as international funds rebalance their portfolios.

Additionally, domestic consumption stimulus policies, including a VAT reduction to 8% for essential goods (until the end of 2026), are boosting purchasing power and retail sales, providing a solid foundation for continued growth in the consumer-retail sector.

According to BVSC, MSN stock remains rated OUTPERFORM. BVSC highlights Masan’s unique closed-loop value chain in Vietnam, connecting production, food processing, modern distribution, and consumption, creating synergies across WinCommerce, Masan MEATLife, Masan High-Tech Materials, and Phúc Long.

This combination not only sustains profit growth but also enhances Masan’s appeal to international investors, especially as foreign capital shifts towards companies with strong domestic consumer foundations and stable profitability.

Despite positive prospects, experts note short-term challenges for consumer-retail businesses, including Masan. These include input cost pressures, intense competition in the modern retail market, and global economic fluctuations affecting domestic purchasing power. Additionally, digital transformation and governance standardization to meet international investor requirements demand disciplined financial management and operational optimization.

However, analysts believe that with its large market capitalization, robust financial structure, and integrated ecosystem, Masan has high adaptability, mitigating risks and maintaining stable growth momentum.

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