“Households Earning Under $8,700 Annually Require Over 35 Years of Savings to Afford a Home”

Discussing the real estate market in Q3/2025, Mr. Trần Minh Tiến, Director of Market Research and Customer Insight at One Mount Group, notes that the property markets in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are entering a clear recovery phase. Despite high prices, with many projects selling above 100 million VND/m², purchasing power remains stable due to genuine residential demand and projects with transparent legal frameworks and completed infrastructure.

However, soaring prices pose significant challenges for housing affordability in major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. According to One Mount Group’s calculations, a middle-income household (earning 200 million – 1.3 billion VND annually) would need approximately 9–10 years to afford a standard 70m² apartment (priced at 85–95 million VND/m², excluding VAT). Meanwhile, lower-income households (earning <200 million VND/year) are virtually unable to access commercial housing, requiring over 35 years of savings. This widening gap between income and property prices is increasingly evident.

Mr. Nguyễn Văn Đính, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokerage Association (VARS), highlights that transaction data for the first nine months of 2025 shows a highly positive absorption rate of nearly 70%, equivalent to approximately 60,000 transactions, doubling compared to the same period in 2024. This significant improvement in absorption indicates a notable increase in market activity.

Mr. Đính points out an interesting trend: most projects launched during this period have higher prices than previous years but still achieve strong absorption rates, with some even selling out in the initial launch phase. This reflects a resurgence in market demand, despite continuous price increases. Direct surveys of multiple projects confirm this widespread trend.

However, it’s important to note that most current transactions are driven by investors purchasing second properties for investment purposes, rather than for personal use. This indicates that market activity is primarily fueled by investment capital, while genuine residential demand remains constrained by prices far exceeding the purchasing power of the majority.

In terms of pricing, newly launched residential products are maintaining very high levels. Villas, townhouses, and shophouses range from 50 to 400 million VND/m², up 5–10% from previous launches. Most projects follow the trend of “subsequent phases priced higher than previous ones.”

Apartment prices have also surged. In Hanoi, the average price has reached approximately 95 million VND/m², with 43% of new supply exceeding 120 million VND/m²—a record high in recent times.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the average price stands at 91 million VND/m², closely trailing Hanoi. In the secondary market, prices continue to rise, averaging 10–15% higher than the same period last year.

Price increases are widespread: Hanoi saw a 96.2% rise, Ho Chi Minh City 56.9%, and Da Nang 72.6%, reflecting a national trend of escalating property prices.

“Skyrocketing housing prices are discouraging young people from pursuing homeownership, leading to hesitancy in starting families and declining birth rates, ultimately impacting population quality,” Mr. Đính observes.

At a recent seminar on “Addressing Affordable Housing Shortages and Attracting Residents to New Urban Areas,” Mr. Lê Hoàng Châu suggested that commercial housing priced under 3 billion VND per unit is currently the most suitable segment.

Mr. Châu proposed extending access to the 145 trillion VND preferential loan package—originally intended for social housing—to buyers of commercial units under 3 billion VND. He believes that providing young buyers with credit policies featuring reasonable interest rates of 5.9–6.1% per annum over 20–25 years would significantly enhance their ability to afford homes.