Russian Media: Astonished by Vietnam’s Remarkable Achievements!

Russian news agency Sputnik published an article titled “Astonished by Vietnam.”

According to the article, Standard Chartered Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 to 7.5%, up from the previous 6.1%, following positive economic indicators in the first nine months of the year.

In its recently released macroeconomic report, the bank’s experts noted that Vietnam continues to strengthen its position in the global supply chain, with robust trade activities and deepening international integration through numerous effective Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).

Not only Standard Chartered, but several Western financial institutions have also expressed amazement at Vietnam’s strong economic growth amidst global economic uncertainties.

Driven by robust exports, imports, and strong FDI inflows

Citing data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Standard Chartered reported that in the first nine months, Vietnam’s total export turnover increased by 24.7% year-on-year, reaching USD 42.7 billion.

Key export categories such as electronics and computers rose by 66.2%, phones by 17.5%, and machinery and equipment by 11.6%. Conversely, imports also grew by 24.9%, totaling USD 39.8 billion, with electronic components and computers up by 43.6%, and machinery by 33.6%.

Standard Chartered stated that these figures clearly reflect the effectiveness of industrial production expansion and increased foreign investment in recent times. Vietnam’s foreign exchange balance is considered stable and sustainable, supported by strong trade activities and a relatively stable exchange rate.

After a period of reduced foreign exchange reserves due to the strengthening USD, the bank forecasts that Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves will soon recover, indicating the economy’s resilience and strong recovery capacity.

Additionally, domestic credit growth has shown a clear recovery, despite unchanged policy interest rates. To date, the total credit balance across the economy has increased by over 15% year-on-year, reflecting improving business confidence and investment demand.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to play a pivotal role. In the first nine months, disbursed FDI reached USD 18.8 billion, up 8.5%, while newly registered FDI amounted to USD 28.5 billion, a 15.2% increase year-on-year.

Standard Chartered predicts that the refinancing rate will remain at 4.5% until the end of 2025 and throughout 2026, facilitating production expansion and investment.

Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered, attributed Vietnam’s adaptability and recovery to stable FDI inflows, sustainable export growth, and its growing importance in global supply chain diversification strategies.

Impressive growth prospects

Based on these positive results, Standard Chartered has revised its 2025 GDP forecast to 7.5% and 2026 to 7.2%. Inflation is expected to rise slightly to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, while the USD/VND exchange rate is projected to remain stable at 26,300 and 26,750, respectively.

Simultaneously, several major financial institutions have adjusted their forecasts positively. HSBC’s latest report highlights that after Vietnam’s General Statistics Office announced a Q3 GDP growth of 8.23%, Vietnam has become the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN.

HSBC described this as an “outcome exceeding expectations” and currently holds the highest growth forecast, close to the government’s target of over 8%.

The bank also revised its inflation forecast to 3.3% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, affirming that these levels remain manageable. HSBC’s 2026 GDP forecast was increased from 5.8% to 6.7%.

Earlier, ADB and UOB raised their growth forecasts for Vietnam to 6.7% and 7.5%, respectively, while the IMF and World Bank (WB) maintained their forecasts at 6.5%–6.6%.

Rising market confidence, optimistic Q4 outlook

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh stated that with the current momentum, Vietnam is well-positioned to achieve a GDP growth target of over 8%, provided no adverse developments occur.

A survey by the General Statistics Office also paints a brighter picture for businesses: 40.8% of manufacturing and construction firms anticipate improved Q4 performance compared to Q3, with 38% expecting increased orders.

Furthermore, EuroCham’s Q3 Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose to 66.5 points—the highest in three years. Bruno Jaspaert, Chairman of EuroCham, noted that maintaining stable confidence amidst global volatility is a “particularly positive signal” for Vietnam’s economic outlook.