I. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE STOCK MARKET INDEX
I.1. Market Trends
VN30 futures contracts experienced a collective decline during the trading session on November 3, 2025. Specifically, 41I1FB000 (I1FB000) dropped by 1.69% to 1,860 points; VN30F2512 (F2512) fell by 1.38% to 1,860 points; 41I1G3000 (G3000) decreased by 1.17% to 1,860 points; and 41I1G6000 (I1G6000) declined by 1.57% to 1,858.8 points. The underlying index, VN30-Index, closed at 1,857.64 points.
Additionally, VN100 futures contracts also saw a unanimous decline on the same day. Notably, 41I2FB000 (I2FB000) fell by 2.15% to 1,776 points; 41I2FC000 (I2FC000) dropped by 1.74% to 1,776.4 points; 41I2G3000 (I2G3000) decreased by 3.76% to 1,758 points; and 41I2G6000 (I2G6000) declined by 2.55% to 1,756.1 points. The underlying VN100-Index closed at 1,765.36 points.
During the November 3, 2025 session, 41I1FB000 opened with a slight uptick but quickly weakened as short sellers gained dominance, causing a sharp decline. However, buying pressure resurfaced, helping the contract recover and rally in the latter half of the morning session. In the afternoon, selling pressure re-emerged, overwhelming the market and pushing I1FB000 into a deep decline by the close. I1FB000 ended the session at 1,860, down over 32 points.
Intraday Chart of 41I1FB000
Source: https://stockchart.vietstock.vn/
By the close, the basis of the 41I1FB000 contract narrowed compared to the previous session, reaching 2.36 points. This indicates a less optimistic sentiment among investors.
Fluctuations of 41I1FB000 and VN30-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Basis is calculated as follows: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN30-Index
Trading volume and value in the derivatives market increased by 20.34% and 18.98%, respectively, compared to the session on October 31, 2025. Specifically, I1FB000 trading volume rose by 20.02%, with 410,292 contracts matched. I2FB000 trading volume reached 456 contracts, up 12.04%.
Foreign investors continued to net sell, with a total net selling volume of 780 contracts during the November 3, 2025 session.
Daily Trading Volume Fluctuations in the Derivatives Market. Unit: Contracts
Source: VietstockFinance
I.2. Futures Contract Valuation
Based on the fair pricing method as of November 4, 2025, the reasonable price range for futures contracts currently trading in the market is as follows:
Summary Table of Derivatives Valuation for VN30-Index and VN100-Index
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Opportunity costs in the valuation model are adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free rate (government treasury bills) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments appropriate for each futures contract.
I.3. Technical Analysis of VN30-Index
During the November 3, 2025 session, the VN30-Index continued to decline, accompanied by a Three Black Crows candlestick pattern and increased trading volume compared to the previous session. This suggests persistent bearish sentiment among investors.
Additionally, the index remains below the 50-day SMA, having crossed below earlier, while the MACD continues to decline and approach the zero line after issuing a sell signal. If technical indicators do not improve in upcoming sessions, the short-term outlook remains negative.
In a continued pessimistic scenario, the August 2025 low (equivalent to the 1,765-1,800 range) will serve as short-term support for the VN30-Index.
Technical Analysis Chart of VN30-Index
Source: VietstockUpdater
II. FUTURES CONTRACTS OF THE BOND MARKET
Based on the fair pricing method as of November 4, 2025, the reasonable price range for futures contracts currently trading in the market is as follows:
Summary Table of Government Bond Futures Valuation
Source: VietstockFinance
Note: Opportunity costs in the valuation model are adjusted to suit the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free rate (government treasury bills) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments appropriate for each futures contract.
According to the above valuation, contracts GB05F2512, 41B5G3000, and 41B5G6000 are currently attractively priced. Investors may focus on and consider buying these futures contracts in the near term, as they present a bargain in the market.
Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Department, Vietstock Consulting Division
– 18:28 03/11/2025
Technical Analysis Afternoon Session 03/11: Long Lower Shadow Emerges
The VN-Index staged a modest recovery, forming a Long Lower Shadow candlestick pattern after retesting its August 2025 lows. Conversely, the HNX-Index extended its decline as the Stochastic Oscillator triggered a sell signal.
Technical Analysis for the Afternoon Session of October 30: Intense Tug-of-War Continues
The VN-Index experienced intense volatility, struggling to decisively break above the 50-day SMA. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index edged higher, forming a Long Upper Shadow candlestick pattern, signaling strong selling pressure as it approached the Middle Bollinger Band (around the 270-271 point zone).
Derivatives Market on October 31, 2025: Mixed Signals Emerge
On October 30, 2025, both VN30 and VN100 futures contracts experienced a decline during the trading session. The VN30-Index’s drop coincided with the formation of a small-bodied candlestick pattern, accompanied by weakening trading volume that fell below the 20-session average, indicating prevailing investor caution.
Derivatives Market on October 30, 2025: A Tug-of-War in the Making?
On October 29, 2025, most VN30 and VN100 futures contracts closed higher. The VN30-Index edged up, forming a near-Doji candlestick pattern, while trading volume remained below the 20-session average, indicating investor hesitation.
Technical Analysis for the Afternoon Session of October 28: August 2025’s Previous Low Under Test
The VN-Index continues its steep decline, now trading below the 50-day SMA. The August 2025 low is being tested in the short term. Meanwhile, the HNX-Index remains in a precarious position, consistently hovering beneath the Middle Bollinger Band.
