Vietnam’s Stock Market Surges, Leading Asia’s Rally in a Triumphant Return

Vietnam’s stock market witnessed a remarkable surge, defying the broader downward trend across Asia. A sea of green dominated the trading floor, with securities and real estate sectors leading the charge as numerous stocks hit their ceiling prices, devoid of any sell-side pressure. Blue-chip stocks and banking sector shares also rebounded robustly.

The VN-Index closed the November 4th session up nearly 35 points (+2.16%), reclaiming the 1,650-point threshold. This marked the market’s most significant single-day gain since early October, propelling Vietnam to the top of Asia’s performance charts with a 2.16% increase.

This robust rally provided much-needed relief for investors following a protracted period of market correction. Prior to this session, the VN-Index had shed nearly 150 points from its peak, with many stocks trading at 20-30% discounts. These conditions spurred bottom-fishing activities among investors.

Historically, November ranks as the second-best performing month of the year (trailing only January, with an average return of +2.3% between 2015–2024). In a recent report, MBS Securities suggested that investors could anticipate a short-term market rebound driven by seasonal factors, despite the absence of substantial supportive news.

According to MBS, November typically ushers in a period of market stability as investor sentiment recovers post-earnings season. However, liquidity is expected to remain subdued as major capital flows exercise caution.

Nhất Việt Securities (VFS) projected in their latest report that, given the market’s lack of buying interest at higher price levels and gradually declining liquidity, accumulation strategies are essential for both short- and medium-term horizons.

VFS analysts recommend that investors focus on cyclical sectors poised to benefit from accommodative monetary policies and retail industry tailwinds in November. Consistent institutional demand will help stabilize the market during corrective phases.

On the macroeconomic front, conditions remain relatively stable. Both global and Vietnamese economies await the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut. A Fed rate reduction would afford Vietnam greater flexibility in managing its exchange rate.

“Short-term risks stem from the current information vacuum following the conclusion of the quarterly earnings season. The market may require further consolidation, potentially revisiting more attractive discount levels to reignite robust capital inflows,” VFS analysts noted.

VFS maintains that the short-term sideways trend remains intact. Investors should maintain stock allocations between 50-80% of their portfolios and refrain from premature actions until clearer signals emerge.

Scenario 1 (30% probability): The VN-Index bottoms out and rebounds to its previous peak of 1,800 points.

Scenario 2 (70% probability): Heightened selling pressure prompts a test of the 1,600-point support level. Investors should reduce exposure and await a recovery at the 1,532-point support.