Markets

Derivatives Market on November 12, 2025: Uncertainty Takes Hold

On November 11, 2025, most VN30 and VN100 futures contracts closed higher. The VN30-Index reversed its trend, forming a small-bodied candlestick pattern, while trading volume remained below the 20-session average, indicating investor hesitation.

Administrator

12 November, 2025

I. FUTURE CONTRACTS OF THE STOCK MARKET INDEX

I.1. Market Trends

On November 11, 2025, all VN30 futures contracts saw gains. Specifically, 41I1FB000 (I1FB000) rose by 0.76% to 1,815 points; VN30F2512 (30F2512) increased by 0.56% to 1,810.1 points; 41I1G3000 (G3000) climbed 0.45% to 1,808 points; and 41I1G6000 (I1G6000) advanced 0.31% to 1,802.5 points. The underlying index, VN30-Index, closed at 1,821.6 points.

Additionally, most VN100 futures contracts also rose during the November 11, 2025 session. Notably, 41I2FB000 (I2FB000) gained 0.16% to 1,731.5 points; 41I2FC000 (I2FC000) edged up 0.01% to 1,730 points; 41I2G3000 (I2G3000) rose 0.26% to 1,734.4 points; while 41I2G6000 (I2G6000) declined by 0.7% to 1,712.9 points. The VN100-Index closed at 1,732.96 points.

During the November 11, 2025 session, 41I1FB000 surged at the open and maintained a bullish momentum throughout the morning, with Long positions dominating. In the afternoon, buying pressure continued to drive the contract higher, though late selling pressure narrowed its gains. Ultimately, 41I1FB000 closed in positive territory at 1,815 points, up 13.7 points.

Intraday Chart of 41I1FB000

Source: https://stockchart.vietstock.vn/

At the close, the basis of the 41I1FB000 contract widened compared to the previous session, reaching -6.6 points. This indicates increased investor pessimism.

Price Movements of 41I1FB000 and VN30-Index

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: Basis is calculated as follows: Basis = Futures Contract Price – VN30-Index

Trading volume and value in the derivatives market increased by 24.12% and 23.74%, respectively, compared to the November 10, 2025 session. Specifically, I1FB000 trading volume rose by 24.38%, with 361,157 contracts traded. I2FB000 volume fell by 29.46% to 91 contracts.

Foreign investors continued to buy, with a net purchase volume of 1,273 contracts on November 11, 2025.

Daily Trading Volume Trends in the Derivatives Market. Unit: Contracts

Source: VietstockFinance

I.2. Futures Contract Valuation

Using a fair pricing method as of November 12, 2025, the reasonable price ranges for actively traded futures contracts are as follows:

Valuation Summary Table for VN30-Index and VN100-Index Derivatives

Source: VietstockFinance

Note: Opportunity costs in the pricing model are adjusted for the Vietnamese market. Specifically, the risk-free rate (government treasury bills) is replaced by the average deposit rate of major banks, with term adjustments for each futures contract.

I.3. Technical Analysis of VN30-Index

On November 11, 2025, the VN30-Index reversed higher, forming a small-bodied candlestick pattern. Trading volume remained below the 20-session average, reflecting investor hesitation.

Currently, the index hovers near the Lower Band of the Bollinger Bands, while the MACD indicator continues to decline after a sell signal. This suggests the short-term correction may persist.

Technical Analysis Chart of VN30-Index

Source: VietstockUpdater

II. FUTURE CONTRACTS OF THE BOND MARKET

Using a fair pricing method as of November 12, 2025, the reasonable price ranges for actively traded bond futures contracts are as follows:

Valuation Summary Table for Government Bond Futures

Source: VietstockFinance

According to the above valuation, contracts GB05F2512, 41B5G3000, and 41B5G6000 are currently attractively priced. Investors should consider these futures contracts as they present compelling value in the market.

Economic Analysis & Market Strategy Department, Vietstock Advisory

– 18:28 11/11/2025