Vietnam’s Economic Growth Surges Ahead in Southeast Asia
According to a report by the Russian news agency Sputnik, Vietnam’s economy continues to impress in the region, driven by robust recovery in exports and manufacturing. This growth surpasses international expectations, despite trade pressures from tariffs and barriers imposed by the U.S. and Western countries.
Recent forecasts place Vietnam among the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN, with projected growth exceeding 7%, outpacing Indonesia (5%), Malaysia (4.6–5.3%), Singapore (3.52%), and Thailand (2–3%).
On November 10, Singapore’s UOB Bank released its Vietnam Economic Outlook Report for Q4/2025, highlighting Vietnam’s economy as “continuing to exceed expectations,” maintaining high growth despite risks from new U.S. tariffs and global trade volatility.
Vietnam’s economy shows impressive growth. Photo: istock
The report indicates Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.85% in the first nine months of 2025, higher than initial forecasts, solidifying its position as one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies.
However, due to high comparative figures from Q4/2024 and international trade tensions, Q4/2025 growth is expected to slow to 7.2%.
UOB has revised its full-year growth forecast upward to 7.7% (from 7.5%). To meet the official target of 8.3–8.5%, Vietnam would need to achieve 9.7–10.5% growth in the final quarter—a challenging feat.
In Q3/2025, Vietnam’s economy grew by 8.23% year-on-year, the highest since Q3/2022, when it rebounded strongly post-pandemic with 14.4% growth. This follows an 8.19% increase in Q2 (revised from 7.96%), surpassing Bloomberg’s 7.2% forecast and independent research estimates of 7.6%.
Key drivers include exports and industrial production. In the first nine months, export turnover rose by 16%, with exports to the U.S. increasing by 27.7%, despite high U.S. import tariffs.
Industrial production grew by 10.8%, up from 9.4% in the same period in 2024. The manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for three consecutive months, reflecting business confidence and expansion prospects.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) also remains strong, reaching $18.8 billion—an 8.5% increase year-on-year. If this trend continues, 2025 FDI could approach the 2024 record of $25.4 billion, showcasing strong international investor confidence in Vietnam’s medium- to long-term prospects.
Minister Nguyen Manh Hung emphasizes an “unprecedented goal in human history.” Photo: TTXVN
“An Unprecedented Goal in Human History”
According to Sputnik, alongside economic growth, Vietnam is setting groundbreaking goals in science and technology. At the National Conference on Science and Education on November 12, Minister Nguyen Manh Hung outlined the three stages of technological development: acquisition, mastery, and innovation.
Vietnam is currently in the second stage, capable of adopting, operating, and improving technology, but still limited in creating new technologies.
Minister Hung stressed that without advancing to the third stage—independent research and innovation—Vietnam will struggle to join the developed nations. Since 1990, 34 countries have escaped the middle-income trap, but only 10–12, such as South Korea, Israel, the Czech Republic, and Poland, have become developed nations.
To achieve high-income status by 2045, Vietnam’s GDP must increase at least fivefold in the next 20 years—approximately 10% growth in the first decade and 7% in the second.
He described this as “an unprecedented goal in human history,” extremely challenging but essential for breakthroughs in science, innovation, and digital transformation.
If Vietnam fails to reach high-income status within 35 years of entering the middle-income group (since 2010), the risk of falling into the middle-income trap is significant. Japan took 25 years, South Korea 32, and China 24 to surpass this threshold.
On December 22, 2024, the Politburo issued Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW on “Breakthroughs in Science, Technology, Innovation, and National Digital Transformation,” positioning it as a strategic driver for rapid and sustainable development.
Minister Nguyen Manh Hung likened this resolution to the “Contract 10” of a new era. Just as Contract 10 revolutionized agriculture and lifted Vietnam out of poverty, Resolution 57 is expected to unleash creativity, propelling the nation toward industrialization and digitalization.
The resolution emphasizes goal-oriented management, autonomy, risk acceptance, and performance-based evaluation, allowing creators to benefit from their innovations. The Minister also stressed shifting from input-based to output-based management and from process monitoring to outcome assessment.
The Ministry of Science and Technology aims to measure the economic impact of science and technology spending; without measurable results, effectiveness cannot be claimed.
Additionally, the Ministry is developing a National Startup Program, promoting a “nationwide startup spirit,” with the government fostering an environment where anyone can start a small business without complex bureaucracy.
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