VN-Index Rebounds with Caution: Prioritize Portfolio Management Over Bottom-Fishing

The VN-Index closed the week with a recovery, reclaiming the 1,600-point mark. However, the short-term trend still requires further confirmation signals regarding liquidity and proactive capital flow. Securities firms assess that the market is forming a technical recovery, yet volatility and fluctuations may persist in upcoming sessions.

Anticipated Balance Around 1,640 – 1,650 Points

According to VCBS, technical indicators such as MACD, RSI, and CMF on the daily chart all show improvement, indicating that the recovery momentum is being maintained.

The VN-Index is expected to move toward a balance around the MA20 line, corresponding to 1,640 – 1,650 points, while the 1,700-point level will act as a short-term resistance. However, on the hourly chart, the RSI showing signs of stagnation suggests the market may continue to experience fluctuations in the upcoming sessions.

A report by AIS notes that bottom-fishing demand has returned at various points, helping the index maintain the MA20 support level on the weekly chart and preserve the medium-term uptrend.

Capital flow shows a shift toward mid-cap stocks, notably in the energy, industrial, and consumer sectors—groups that had not seen significant increases in the previous phase. In contrast, banking, securities, and real estate sectors, though recovering, remain cautious.

AIS suggests that the market may still experience adjustments in the coming week, with the nearest support level around 1,600 points. Investors are advised to restructure their portfolios, avoid chasing purchases, and retain only stocks with clear prospects.

Asean Securities reports that the VN-Index closed with a small green candlestick, indicating a state of tug-of-war and exploration. Trading volume increased compared to the previous session but remained below the 20-session average, reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment.

Given the short-term downtrend not yet negated and persistent net selling pressure from foreign investors, the market is forecast to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.

Long-term investors with safe capital costs should maintain their positions, while cash-holding investors may wait for clearer adjustment signals instead of chasing upward movements.

Prioritize Portfolio Management, Avoid Rushing to Predict Market Bottoms

Assessing the market’s latest developments, Mr. Lê Đức Khánh, Director of Analysis at VPS, believes the 1,580 – 1,590 point range likely became a temporary technical bottom.

However, to solidify the signal and build strong confidence, the VN-Index needs to surpass the 1,650-point threshold with improved liquidity.

He suggests the current phase is more suitable for controlling proportions and screening stocks rather than attempting to predict bottoms or chasing recovery expectations.

Regarding margin risks, he notes that low liquidity during recent sharp declines indicates that forced liquidation pressure is not overly concerning, implying that significant margin volumes in the market may be allocated to medium-term positions rather than short-term speculation.

Regarding disbursement timing, the international context remains positive due to monetary policy easing trends and favorable developments in major markets.

Although short-term supportive information is lacking, he believes this phase could still present early opportunities for stocks with unique narratives or promising business results.

Partial disbursement may suit proactive investors with clear strategies. Over the past week, he increased stock proportions to moderate levels, preparing for potential market positivity in late November 2025.

Decisions for large-scale disbursement will depend on liquidity improvement and clear leadership signals from key sectors.