“Dragon Capital CEO: Without Rising Consumption, What Drives Inflation?”

At the recent Vietnam Investment Forum 2026, organized by VietnamBiz and Viet Nam Moi, Mr. Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, provided insights into monetary policy and growth trends.

On inflation, he succinctly stated, “With current consumption levels, the risk of inflation is minimal. Without increased consumption, there’s little to drive inflation.”

Secondly, Mr. Tuan highlighted the constraints of current monetary policy due to exchange rate issues. He emphasized the significant impact of large foreign currency and gold reserves on exchange rates. Despite a slight global interest rate decrease, domestic rates have recently risen.

“For 2026, if the exchange rate remains stable, monetary policy should maintain an easing stance. The extent of easing is uncertain, but the trend leans toward relaxation,” Mr. Tuan noted.

Regarding gold, he referenced three global gold market management models:

Model 1 – USA: In 1933, the U.S. confiscated gold during deflation. This approach is specific to the U.S. context and unsuitable for Vietnam.

Model 2 – India: India issued gold bonds, raising $100–200 billion for national projects. Citizens purchased bonds instead of physical gold. This complex model warrants further discussion.

Model 3 – China: China operates both physical and non-physical gold exchanges.

Mr. Tuan suggested transitioning from physical gold to digital gold. However, this complex, technical issue requires in-depth analysis through specialized seminars.

Post-Covid, Mr. Tuan noted, support focused on the supply side. However, in 2026, consumption will significantly contribute to GDP. He advocated strengthening measures to ensure 9–10% growth. While 2025 may achieve 8% or higher, reaching 9–10% requires additional factors.

“To improve circulation, authorities should consider reducing personal income tax via vouchers, not cash. For example, a 10-unit tax could be reduced by 30%, with citizens paying 7 units and receiving 3 units as time-limited vouchers to encourage spending. Instead of direct cash, vouchers stimulate demand. Previously, we supported supply; now, we should activate demand,” Mr. Tuan explained.

On international investment trends, he noted that foreign investors hold only 14.5% of Vietnamese stocks, the region’s lowest, compared to 20–40% in other countries. This persists despite these countries facing greater instability and lower growth than Vietnam.

“In 2024, foreign investors net sold over $1 billion, a significant figure. In just one month, this reached $1.6 billion,” he stated. He attributed this to 2023’s internal and external economic factors, China’s capital outflows, and lingering effects.

However, he predicted 2026 as a market ‘reset’ year. Once Vietnam’s yield levels align with the region, opportunities will emerge.

He also noted that foreign reserves are below $80 billion, covering three months of imports. In the past five years, foreign investors withdrew over $12 billion from the stock market.

“Without these outflows, Vietnam’s reserves would be higher, ensuring greater macroeconomic stability. Vietnam’s financial market is undervalued. It attracts attention but not enough,” he concluded.