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Commodity analysts report a sharp decline in Pakistan’s rice exports during the 2024-2025 fiscal year, as the world’s fourth-largest rice exporter loses market share to regional competitors. The primary cause is attributed to India lifting its rice export ban, intensifying competition in the global market.
According to data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), rice export earnings from July to October this year plummeted by 46% compared to the same period last year, falling to $581.2 million from $1.08 billion. Export volumes also dropped by 37%, to 998,063 tons from 1.59 million tons.
Muzzammil R. Chappal, Chairman of the Pakistan Cereal Association (CAP), stated, “Pakistan’s rice exports are under pressure due to international market pricing. Currently, India, Thailand, and Vietnam are offering lower prices than we are.”
Chappal cited an example where Pakistan’s Super Basmati rice is priced at approximately $1,200 per ton, while India’s price cap is $900 per ton. For non-Basmati rice, Pakistan and India are losing market share to Vietnam and Thailand, where prices are around $350 per ton, 6% lower than those offered by Islamabad and New Delhi.
“Pakistan’s Basmati rice is more aromatic and of higher quality than India’s, but price remains the decisive factor for customers,” Chappal noted.
Economists also attribute the decline in rice exports to India lifting its export ban. Previously, New Delhi banned the export of 100% broken rice in September 2022 and extended the ban to all rice types in 2023 due to adverse weather affecting production. In March 2025, India resumed exports, directly increasing competition with Pakistan.
Shankar Talreja, Head of Research at Karachi-based brokerage firm Topline Securities, commented, “The decline in rice exports will negatively impact Pakistan’s already deficit-ridden balance of payments, projected to reach a $3 billion shortfall by the fiscal year ending June 2026.”
Official figures reveal that Pakistan’s total exports in the third quarter decreased by 4% to $10.4 billion, with food exports dropping by 35% to $1.54 billion. The State Bank of Pakistan reported a $112 million deficit in October, compared to a $83 million surplus in September. Recent floods are also cited as additional pressure on exports and the current account balance, according to Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Commodities Limited.
Statista ranks Pakistan as the world’s fourth-largest rice exporter in 2024, with 5.3 million tons of rice exported. Meanwhile, India remains the top rice exporter globally, with an annual production exceeding 700 million tons.
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