From Attracting Foreign Capital to Targeting Professional and Long-Term Investment
With Vietnam’s stock market upgraded from “frontier” to “secondary emerging” by FTSE Russell, experts and investors predict this will attract foreign capital. As the market meets higher criteria, major investment funds and organizations will turn to Vietnam. This will bring Vietnamese stock valuations closer to the regional emerging market average.
According to Dragon Capital, many investors, especially institutional funds new to Vietnam, are exploring and preparing to open accounts, setting the stage for foreign capital return in the coming quarters. This resurgence is supported by macroeconomic stability, high regional growth, political stability, market transparency, positive corporate earnings, strong liquidity, and diverse offerings.
Recently, FTSE released a report detailing market classification plans and Vietnam’s stock weightings in indices post-upgrade (including 0.04% in FTSE Global All Cap; 0.02% in FTSE All-World; 0.34% in FTSE Emerging All Cap; and 0.22% in FTSE Emerging Index). Notably, SHB is among the stocks eligible for inclusion in the FTSE Global All Cap Index.
According to a BSC Research update, the firm expects further weighting adjustments for Vietnamese stocks. FTSE used data as of October 31, 2025, without considering potential market classification changes for countries like Greece, Egypt, or Oman, or shifts in market capitalization and investable weightings. BSC believes Vietnam’s weighting could fluctuate, especially as Greece (0.72% in FTSE Emerging) is set to upgrade to “Developed,” potentially increasing weightings for remaining countries, including Vietnam, pending a positive interim review in March 2026.
This presents an opportunity for stocks with available foreign ownership limits, like SHB, to attract international capital and, ultimately, long-term professional investors. This is driven by the bank’s enhanced governance, transparency, and alignment with international standards.
SHB Stock Performance Since Year-Start
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Competitive Edge Through Strong Capital Position
According to BSC Securities, by Q3 2025, credit growth reached approximately 13.4% year-to-date and 20% year-on-year, totaling over VND 17.7 trillion. Credit growth is projected at 18-20% by year-end 2025, sustained into 2026. BSC identifies SHB as a key beneficiary of the central bank’s accommodative monetary policy and a recovering real estate market, positioning it among the industry leaders in loan growth.
As of September 30, 2025, SHB‘s loan portfolio grew 15% to nearly VND 616.6 trillion, driven by strategic partnerships with major state and private conglomerates, ecosystem development, and a robust supply chain network. The bank is also pivoting toward retail and digital banking, optimizing operational costs (CIR at 18.9%, among the industry’s lowest) and profitability (ROE at 19.2%). In the first nine months of 2025, pre-tax profit surged 36% year-on-year to VND 12,235 billion (85% of annual target).
BSC emphasizes that in a credit expansion cycle, the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is critical. Compared to ASEAN peers under Basel III, Vietnamese banks have a lower capital buffer, averaging just over 12% versus 19%. The race to increase capital will dominate the banking sector in the coming years. BSC views banks with strong capital positions as best equipped to maintain their competitive edge.
Joining the capital increase trend, SHB‘s recent shareholder meeting approved a VND 7.5 trillion capital raise for 2025. The plan includes issuing over 459 million shares to existing shareholders, offering 200 million shares to professional investors, and allocating 90 million shares for an Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP). Upon completion, SHB‘s chartered capital will reach over VND 53.4 trillion, ranking it among the top four private banks.
The additional capital will expand lending, fund strategic projects, upgrade IT infrastructure, and accelerate digital banking transformation. This will enhance SHB‘s financial capacity, competitiveness, and compliance with international banking safety standards, adapting to market dynamics.
SHB maintains a CAR above 12%, reaching 12.5% as of June 30, 2025 (well above the 8% minimum requirement). Its risk management system follows a three-line defense model, aligned with international standards, incorporating measurement, control, and risk alert mechanisms.
Regarding banking sector potential, Agriseco Securities notes that as of November 19, 2025, the sector’s average P/B ratio stands at 1.6x, below the five-year average of 1.8x after a 20-30% correction from the August 2025 peak. Given positive growth prospects, Agriseco finds current bank stock valuations attractive for accumulation. Capital increase plans for late 2025 and early 2026 are expected to support stock prices.
Year-to-date, SHB shares have surged 110% to VND 16,700, with average daily liquidity of 70-80 million shares and sessions exceeding 100 million. SHB‘s P/B ratio of 1.16x is compelling relative to the sector average. Combining capital expansion, strengthened industry positioning, and market upgrade potential, SHB presents a promising investment outlook.
– 06:58 27/11/2025
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