Hundreds of Thousands of Tons of Goods from Russia and Laos Flood Vietnam: Nation’s Consumption Triples Global Average, Spending Nearly $2 Billion on Imports

According to preliminary data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam imported over 546,000 tons of fertilizers in October, valued at more than $202 million, marking a 13.5% increase in volume and a 4.6% rise in value compared to September.

In the first 10 months of the year, the country spent over $1.9 billion on importing more than 5.3 million tons of fertilizers, reflecting a 23.3% increase in volume and a 33% surge in value compared to the same period in 2024. The average import price stood at $355 per ton, an 8% increase year-over-year.

China was the largest supplier, with Vietnam importing 2.56 million tons worth $918.54 million, up 39% in volume and 56.2% in value year-over-year. The average price was $358 per ton, a 13% increase.

Russia ranked second, supplying over 618,000 tons valued at more than $282 million, up 23% in volume and 35% in value. The average price was $457 per ton, a 10% increase.

Laos was the third-largest supplier, with over 291,000 tons valued at $85.64 million, at an average price of $293.4 per ton. This represents a 0.2% increase in volume, a 13.5% rise in value, and a 13.3% increase in price.

According to the FAO, fertilizers play a crucial role, contributing 30-60% of agricultural input costs and boosting crop yields by 40-50%. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) reports that over the years, Vietnam’s fertilizer industry has supplied 10-10.5 million tons of various fertilizers annually, achieving significant progress in self-sufficiency for urea, phosphate, and NPK fertilizers, and even exporting multiple types. However, Vietnam’s fertilizer application rates are significantly higher than many countries, triple the global average.

In a recent fertilizer industry outlook, VnDirect Securities forecasts that urea prices will continue to decline in the remaining months of 2025, while DAP prices are expected to stabilize.

For urea: Domestic prices rose in 2025 but are expected to cool in 2026. Typically, global urea price increases support higher domestic prices. Given the 2025 global urea price outlook, VnDirect predicts a 12-15% increase in domestic urea prices year-over-year in 2025, followed by an 8-10% decline in 2026.

For DAP: After a sharp rise in 2025, domestic DAP prices are expected to moderate in 2026. In the first eight months of 2025, domestic DAP prices (e.g., Dinh Vu DAP in the Western region) increased by 13% to VND 17,100/kg, while imported brands like Hong Ha DAP rose by 20% to VND 25,000/kg.

Domestic DAP prices are projected to increase by 13-15% year-over-year in 2025. In 2026, prices are expected to gradually decline but remain above 2023 averages.

Despite potential price declines in the remaining months of 2025, VnDirect anticipates strong full-year profit growth for domestic fertilizer producers, particularly urea and DAP manufacturers, driven by high selling prices amid tight global supply and lower natural gas input costs.

Additionally, the revised Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law, effective from July 2025, is expected to enhance domestic companies’ competitiveness, encourage investment, and expand capacity, especially for high-quality products like DAP, MAP, and NPK.