“Stock Up for Lunar New Year: No More Worries About Running Out of Supplies”

According to the Department of Dyke Management and Flood Control (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), the historic flooding in South Central Vietnam as of 6 PM on November 26 has damaged 51,807 hectares of rice and crops, resulted in the death or loss of 944,475 livestock and poultry, and caused 373 hectares of aquaculture to be completely destroyed. Amid this situation, many are concerned that the food market in the final months of the year, especially during the 2026 Lunar New Year, may face shortages and price hikes.

Tensions Ease, but Prices Remain High

A representative from the Thu Duc Agricultural Wholesale Market (Ho Chi Minh City) reported that prices of vegetables have dropped from their peak over the past two days due to increased supply from new regions, including imports from China, Thailand, and others. The daily supply to the market hovers around 1,600 tons, no longer facing the previous shortages.

Additionally, supermarkets offering stabilized and even discounted vegetables have contributed to lowering overall vegetable prices. However, prices remain significantly higher than usual, impacting daily household spending and food service businesses.

Similarly, pork prices have begun to rise over the past two weeks after a prolonged decline. As of November 26, live pig prices in many regions across the country have been adjusted upward by farmers and enterprises. In the Southeast, Grade 2 pigs increased by 2,000 VND to 50,000 VND/kg, while Grade 1 pigs remained at 53,000 VND/kg. In the Mekong Delta, prices rose by 1,000 VND for both grades, ranging from 49,000 to 53,000 VND/kg.

Traders attribute the continuous price increase over the past two weeks, totaling 5,000–6,000 VND/kg, to a sharp decline in supply from small-scale farmers due to flooding. Many were forced to sell early, reducing the availability of market-ready pigs. With weakened small-scale supply, large farming companies have been able to adjust prices.

A representative from the Saigon Co.op supermarket chain noted that current supplies from Lam Dong meet only 50%–60% of demand due to landslides and significant product damage, with some varieties unavailable. Saigon Co.op has closely coordinated with suppliers of tropical vegetables (morning glory, green mustard, sweet cabbage, squash, cucumbers) from Tay Ninh, Dong Thap, and Ho Chi Minh City to ensure sufficient stock in their supermarkets at prices 10%–15% lower than the market.

According to this retailer, Lam Dong’s vegetable supply will take about another month to stabilize due to extensive landslides and the upcoming Typhoon No. 15. Saigon Co.op has also collaborated with tropical vegetable cooperatives to provide capital for farmers to quickly restore production, reducing reliance on the currently scarce supply from Lam Dong. “Given the current situation, vegetable prices are unlikely to drop significantly by year-end as supply cannot fully recover,” the retailer stated.

Mr. Bui Trung Kien, Director of Xuan Thai Thinh Co., Ltd. (Lam Dong), reported that only about 20 out of 40 hectares linked with farmers remain productive due to prolonged rain and continuous flooding. Many farmers cannot replant because their land has been eroded or washed away, significantly reducing production area.

Mr. Kien noted that with the time remaining until the Lunar New Year, long-growing vegetables like cabbage, Chinese cabbage, and root crops will likely be in short supply. Leafy greens such as mustard, lettuce, spinach, and amaranth may recover faster but still struggle to meet peak demand. “Vegetable prices have already risen by 30%–50%, depending on the type, and are likely to remain high as supply cannot recover in time,” he said.

Supply Remains Adequate

Contrary to consumer concerns, many suppliers assert that the Lunar New Year supply is secure, though prices for some items may be higher than usual. Mr. Kieu Anh Dung, Director of the Phuoc Hoa Safe Vegetable Production Cooperative (Tay Ninh), reassured consumers that there is no need to worry about supply during the holiday, as many vegetables have short growth cycles: morning glory takes 20–25 days to harvest, amaranth and water spinach 30–35 days, and green mustard and sweet cabbage 40–45 days. “With the current recovery pace, tropical vegetable supplies for the holiday will be relatively abundant,” Mr. Dung said.

Major livestock companies like C.P. Vietnam, CJ, Japfa, Emivest, and Greenfeed are also confident in their supply, with a combined inventory of nearly 700,000 market-ready pigs. Medium and small farms, along with small-scale households nationwide, contribute significantly to market supply.

Mr. Nguyen Tri Cong, Chairman of the Dong Nai Livestock Association, stated that the national pig population currently stands at 28–30 million, widely distributed across regions, minimizing the impact of natural disasters or diseases. Companies have proactively restocked to meet the increased year-end demand. Additionally, global pork supply is surplus, allowing importers to stabilize the market if domestic prices rise.

In distribution, supermarkets and retail chains have implemented measures to stabilize prices during volatile periods. A representative from Bach Hoa Xanh emphasized prioritizing consumer interests by sourcing from diverse regions, adding long-shelf-life vegetables, and maintaining promotions like buy-one-get-one and end-of-day discounts to support consumers amid rising input costs. Expanding supplier partnerships helps Bach Hoa Xanh maintain stable supplies despite adverse weather.

Mr. Vo Tran Ngoc, Sales Director at Saigon Co.op, predicted a slight fruit and vegetable shortage through 2025, particularly for Lam Dong specialties like radishes, broccoli, cauliflower, and carrots. However, supply will recover from early 2026 to the Lunar New Year as weather improves and farmers begin new crops.

Livestock, poultry, and processed goods are unlikely to see significant price increases due to falling raw material costs. Confectionery, soft drinks, and beer may rise slightly, while eggs could increase pre-holiday due to reduced exports to Cambodia as its market stabilizes.

Mr. Ngoc noted that changing consumer habits will prevent price spikes. People no longer stockpile excessively, with 2026 Lunar New Year sales projected to rise only 10%–15% year-on-year, lower than expected due to post-disaster economic challenges.

For imported raw materials, Mr. Tran Vu Khanh, Director of Hiep Quang Agro, predicted stable prices for wheat, soybeans, and corn due to global oversupply. “Ports remain full as exporting countries avoided flooding unlike Vietnam. Despite exchange rate increases, lower commodity base prices balance the impact,” he explained.