Is the Era of ‘Lost Trust’ in Corporate Bonds Over?

Article 1: The Risk of Corporate Cash Flow Congestion

In the first 10 months of 2025, the value of privately placed corporate bonds reached nearly 442 trillion VND, 1.39 times higher than the same period in 2024. However, bond repurchases declined sharply. Corporate cash flow remains at risk of congestion, with significant redemption pressures looming.

Numerous Multi-Trillion Bond Issuances

After a period of sluggishness, the corporate bond market has rebounded since the beginning of the year, with several multi-trillion issuances. Among these, real estate companies led with the largest capital, totaling nearly 108 trillion VND.

In October 2025 alone, real estate firms issued nearly 33 trillion VND in private bonds, 2.5 times higher than the previous month and 14 times more than the same period in 2024. This month’s issuance volume nearly matched the peak of December 2024.

Notably, most real estate companies issuing bonds in October were first-time issuers in 2025. Major issuers included Hung Phat Invest Hanoi LLC (7.65 trillion VND), New Era T&T JSC (5.55 trillion VND), and Truong Minh Real Estate Investment and Development LLC (4.5 trillion VND).

Alongside the surge in issuance volume, the average interest rate in October 2025 was 6.5% per annum, up from previous months. Long-term private bonds (7-8 years) without collateral or payment guarantees saw rates ranging from 5.7% to 7.7% per annum.

At the November government press conference, Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi noted that the corporate bond market is recovering in 2025. The market is projected to issue approximately 500 trillion VND in bonds this year.

Despite rising new issuances, secondary market liquidity weakened. Total private bond trading in October 2025 reached 101.755 trillion VND, averaging 4.424 trillion VND per session—a 41% drop from September and the lowest since March 2025.

Additionally, early bond repurchases by companies declined (9.948 trillion VND, down 44% year-on-year). Notably, five bond codes defaulted on interest and principal payments, totaling 714 billion VND.

The Vietnam Bond Market Association highlighted three notable issuances in late 2025. BAF Vietnam Agriculture JSC plans to issue public bonds worth up to 1 trillion VND, with a face value of 100 million VND per bond, a 3-year term, and a 10% annual interest rate. Proceeds will fund pig farming and debt repayment.

BIDV Bank will issue non-convertible, unsecured bonds in Q4/2025, totaling up to 9 trillion VND. These bonds have a minimum 5-year term and a mixed fixed-floating interest rate.

Asia Commercial Bank (ACB) approved a 20-phase private bond issuance plan for 2025, totaling 20 trillion VND. These non-convertible, unsecured bonds have a face value of 100 million VND each.

Risk Warnings for the Corporate Bond Market

FiinGroup estimates that December 2025 redemptions will reach 45 trillion VND, triple November’s figure. Total redemptions for the last two months of 2025 are projected at 59.6 trillion VND, with 213 trillion VND due in 2026.

Speaking with Tien Phong, Dr. Chau Dinh Linh of HCMC Banking University noted that the corporate bond market provides essential medium- and long-term capital. After a period of overheating, the market has improved with tighter regulations.

Regulatory reforms aim to protect investors, ensure issuer accountability, and enhance market transparency. Third-party credit rating agencies are crucial for market stability.

Dr. Linh warned that the 2026 market faces risks such as rising redemptions and higher issuance rates, straining corporate finances. Authorities must protect bondholders, the most vulnerable group.

“The risk lies not in defaults but in market contagion. Even a few defaults can trigger investor panic. Regulators must identify and address bottlenecks to prevent systemic issues,” Dr. Linh advised.