Dr. Can Van Luc shared insights at the event on the morning of November 29, 2025.
|
Capital Market: Attractive Valuations and Restructuring Challenges
Regarding the capital market, Dr. Can Van Luc emphasized that the valuation of Vietnamese stocks is currently quite attractive. The market’s P/E ratio stands at approximately 15 times, significantly lower than India’s 22 times, while listed companies’ profits in the first nine months grew impressively by around 21%. The market operates under Dragon Capital’s “80/80” rule, where the top 80 companies account for 80% of market capitalization. However, the economy’s capital structure is severely imbalanced, relying heavily on bank credit (50-55%), while capital from the stock market (equities, bonds) accounts for only 15%.
Dr. Luc recommends a sustainable capital structure shift: Bank loans to 40%, stock market capital to 25%, public investment to 17%, and FDI to 17%. “Particularly, capital for innovation, startups, and technology must be raised from the capital market, as banks cannot lend to high-risk models lacking collateral,” he stressed.
2026 Macroeconomic Outlook: Surging Growth and Risk Management
Globally, 2026’s growth is projected to stabilize at around 3%, while China’s growth slows below 5% despite stimulus packages. China’s real estate market instability is a key lesson for Vietnam to manage both financial and property markets effectively. Despite storm damages of VND 60 trillion (0.25-0.3% of GDP), Vietnam aims for 8% growth in 2025 and 9-10% in 2026. Inflation is well-controlled at 3.5-4%, despite a 13-14% money supply increase, due to slow money velocity.
Interest rates are expected to ease as the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates in December, reducing pressure on exchange rates and investment flows. The 2026 exchange rate is forecast to stabilize, aided by narrowing interest rate differentials and gold market stabilization measures under Decree 24 amendments.
Energy prices are projected to average $55/barrel in 2026 (down from $69 in 2025), reducing production costs due to ample supply and weak demand from major economies.
Growth Drivers: Public Investment to Trade Challenges
Public investment remains a key driver, with disbursements nearing VND 1,000 trillion (USD 34 billion), equivalent to 7% of GDP—Asia’s highest. Full disbursement could add 2 percentage points to GDP growth. Exports grew 16%, but imports surged 19%, narrowing the trade deficit. Notably, Vietnam’s service imports (USD 10 billion/year) are dominated by logistics and tourism, with low foreign tourist spending and high outbound Vietnamese travel.
Singapore and China lead FDI inflows, reflecting capital shifts. However, tariff risks and trade protectionism pose challenges. While the U.S.’s 40% “transshipment” tax is unlikely to be widely applied, Vietnam’s average 16% tariff remains competitive, except in sectors like textiles, footwear, and agriculture, which face higher global rates.
Real estate and construction face paradoxes. Property stocks surged 165%, but housing prices are excessively high relative to income (26 years of income for an apartment vs. 15 globally). Social housing and affordable segments remain undersupplied. Construction growth is strong but margins are thin due to slow adoption of technologies like 3D printing and BIM. Energy security is critical for attracting high-tech FDI, requiring 11-12% electricity growth to support 10% economic growth.
Ho Chi Minh City’s “Green Stream” Vision and Megacity Aspirations
Dr. Luc revealed plans to amend Resolution 98, introducing a “green stream” for strategic investors with a streamlined one-stop mechanism. HCMC aims for 10-11% growth over five years, surpassing the national 10% target. This requires massive investment: USD 300 billion annually by 2030, rising to USD 450-500 billion by 2045. HCMC alone needs USD 70-75 billion yearly, with 70% from private and capital markets.
Dr. Luc envisions HCMC as a Shanghai-like megacity—a hub for finance, logistics, tourism, and high-tech. Its advantages include a dominant economy (24% of GDP, 35% of national budget), special policies, and synergy with Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau’s industrial strengths. However, HCMC must address flooding, traffic congestion, and pollution to unlock its potential. He concluded this is a rare “golden opportunity” for businesses, as the government’s reform momentum may not recur for decades.
– 13:19 30/11/2025
High-Speed North-South Railway Project: Direct Investment Emerges as the Sole Viable Model
Renowned economist Vu Dinh Anh asserts that the optimal financing model for the North-South high-speed rail project is direct private investment, wherein the state provides 80% of the capital through loans, and private investors contribute the remaining 20%. This approach surpasses both traditional public investment and public-private partnerships (PPPs) in terms of efficiency and feasibility.
Upgrading Hanoi’s Gateway: Transforming Key Highway Routes
The rapid increase in traffic has led to severe congestion on the Cau Gie – Ninh Binh Expressway, prompting authorities to consider expanding it to six lanes. The Ministry of Construction has proposed assigning the project to VEC to ensure timely completion and efficient operation.
Unprecedented Budget Surplus: Hanoi Records Highest Revenue Collection in History
The Hanoi People’s Committee has announced that the city’s budget revenue for this year is estimated to exceed 640 trillion VND, reaching 124.9% of the planned target. Notably, revenue from land use fees alone accounts for 89 trillion VND. This marks the first time Hanoi’s budget collection has surpassed the 600 trillion VND milestone.
Cần Giờ Bridge: Construction Set to Begin in January 2026, Completion Expected by Q1 2028
Masterise Group is accelerating its involvement in Vietnam’s strategic transportation infrastructure projects, starting with the Can Gio Bridge. According to Mr. Do Tuan Anh, Deputy CEO of Masterise Group, if approved, the company plans to commence construction of the Can Gio Bridge in January 2026, with completion expected by early 2028. This project is one of several key infrastructure initiatives that Masterise Group is actively proposing to undertake.
Optimizing Budget Allocation for Preferential Credit Programs
The draft decree on the interest rate subsidy mechanism is being finalized by the Ministry of Finance, aiming to standardize and unify the process. This initiative seeks to integrate interest rate support activities into the framework of public investment, establishing a more transparent and sustainable legal foundation.
