Dragon Capital Chairman at the event on the morning of November 29, 2025.
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Global Context with 5 “Headwinds”
To outline the macroeconomic context, Mr. Dominic Scriven referenced the perspective of legendary investor Ray Dalio, who believes the world is currently facing five major challenges simultaneously.
These include currency risks related to money supply and debt across nations, businesses, and households; internal conflicts and political polarization within countries; escalating geopolitical tensions among nations; urgent climate change issues; and the rapid evolution of technology. The interplay of these five factors creates a challenging landscape that Vietnam must also heed.
Vietnam’s Economic Recovery and the 10% GDP Growth Target
Delving into Vietnam’s economic reality, Mr. Dominic Scriven noted that 2025 marks a recovery year following the difficulties of 2022 and 2023. Thanks to strong messages from government leaders and policies like Resolution 68, business confidence has rebounded significantly, with the index surpassing 50.
Notably, 2026 is projected to see Vietnam achieve a remarkable 10% GDP growth. According to Dragon Capital’s internal analysis, this ambition is grounded in the potential from “formalizing” the economy. Beyond the 500,000 private enterprises, Vietnam has approximately 5 million informal household businesses. With new regulations on electronic invoices and bank transactions, these businesses will gradually enter the formal system. Dragon Capital estimates this transition could contribute an additional 1% to GDP annually over the next three years, making the 10% growth target feasible.
Regarding capital structure, Mr. Dominic Scriven highlighted that with a GDP of around $500 billion, total social investment accounts for about 30%, or $150 billion. This includes $25 billion in public investment, $25 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI), and $100 billion from the private sector. The key focus now is the government’s effort to increase public investment from $25 billion to $32-33 billion and sustain this growth in subsequent years. This capital will be directed toward infrastructure, stimulating robust private sector investment. For FDI, despite positive recovery, Mr. Scriven recalled the 2008 lesson when registered capital hit a record $80 billion. He cautioned that it’s crucial to monitor whether this capital genuinely flows into production, as recent FDI projects have increasingly targeted real estate.
A surprising highlight in 2025’s economic landscape is Vietnam’s export strength. Contrary to concerns about tariff risks from the U.S. market or international political volatility, Vietnam’s production and export capacity remain resilient, even showing remarkable performance.
Domestic businesses are effectively leveraging favorable conditions such as lower interest rates and credit growth. However, Mr. Dominic Scriven cited the State Bank Governor’s warning about the banking system’s limited capital supply capacity. He emphasized the systemic risk witnessed in 2008-2009, where short-term funds were used to finance long-term loans. Developing a long-term capital market through stocks and bonds is therefore urgent to alleviate pressure on bank credit. Regarding exchange rates, despite pressures from gold prices, Bitcoin, and interest rate differentials with the USD, rates have stabilized as U.S. monetary policy reversed.
Corporate Health and 2026 Outlook
On the capital market and corporate health outlook, Mr. Dominic Scriven noted that Vietnam’s stock market is leading Asia’s recovery after a sluggish period. The market’s future momentum stems from Vietnam’s upgrade from frontier to emerging market status and the growing participation of long-term institutional investors.
Dragon Capital currently tracks about 80 top enterprises (accounting for 80% of total market capitalization) and observes a clear recovery. Business results, particularly post-tax profits, have grown quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 outperforming Q2 and Q2 surpassing Q1. This recovery isn’t limited to large enterprises but has extended to SMEs, accompanied by expanding net profit margins and increased capital expenditure (Capex).
A particularly encouraging development in 2025 is the shift in analysts’ forecasts. Typically, analysts start the year optimistically and grow pessimistic toward year-end, but Dragon Capital has revised its corporate profit forecast upward from 15% at the beginning of the year to over 20% by year-end.
Looking ahead to 2026, despite global macroeconomic risks, Dragon Capital projects average profit growth across sectors at 16-18%. In terms of valuation, Vietnam is strategically positioned with high profit growth compared to the region, while its P/E ratio remains attractively low, near historical averages. Mr. Dominic Scriven affirmed that within the current economic cycle, Vietnam holds a relatively advantageous position, and he is confident that 2026 will be a successful year for businesses.
– 11:09 30/11/2025
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