Weighing the Options for a $60 Billion Project: THACO’s Financial Backing vs. Vingroup’s Rapid Execution

THACO and VinSpeed have both proposed to lead the $61 billion North-South high-speed railway project, offering a 20% equity and 80% loan financing structure. However, their approaches to capital mobilization, construction timelines, and risk allocation differ significantly, presenting two distinct options with unique advantages and drawbacks.

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Following the National Assembly’s approval of the North-South high-speed railway investment plan, two major private enterprises swiftly entered the fray. VinSpeed (under Vingroup) submitted its proposal on May 14th, followed shortly by THACO. Both aim to be the lead investor, but their approaches differ significantly.

The North-South high-speed railway spans over 1,500 km, traversing 20 provinces with a design speed of 350 km/h. According to the proposals, the total investment is approximately $61 billion (excluding land acquisition). This strategic infrastructure project has the potential to reshape regional competitiveness for decades.

Notably, both THACO and VinSpeed commit to self-financing 20% of the capital (nearly $12.3 billion). However, the remaining 80% loan differs: VinSpeed requests a 0% interest government loan for 30 years, while THACO seeks commercial loans from domestic and international institutions.

THACO pledges to raise capital from the market, proposing government guarantees and interest subsidies for 30 years. The 7-year timeline includes: Hanoi – Vinh and HCMC – Nha Trang in 5 years, and Nha Trang – Vinh in the subsequent 7 years. The company also aims to manufacture train carriages and locomotives in Vietnam by 2029.

In contrast, VinSpeed proposes a model where the government provides an 80% interest-free loan. VinSpeed commits to completing the entire route within 5 years of land acquisition, ensuring no cost overruns or delays, while also developing R&D technology.

In terms of fiscal burden, THACO’s plan is lighter as the loan comes entirely from the market, though government guarantees are still required. Conversely, VinSpeed’s proposal demands substantial resources but offers a clear timeline, reducing the entire project duration to 5 years.

Regarding commitment levels, VinSpeed guarantees no cost overruns or delays, along with a “5 benefits” package for the government. THACO ensures quality and timeline but has not announced similar cost control provisions as VinSpeed.

In terms of industrial and technological ecosystems, VinSpeed aims for a comprehensive high-speed rail industry, mastering core technologies through R&D under a Vietnamese brand. THACO focuses on manufacturing train carriages and locomotives by 2029, reducing imports and targeting regional exports.

Overall, both proposals have distinct advantages. However, prioritizing rapid full-route completion, cost overrun risk control, and clear timeline and cost commitments, VinSpeed demonstrates a clear advantage.

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